Unwelcome news: Ammo Supply Unlikely to Return to Normal Anytime Soon

[Goose Cracker]

Stephen Gutowski is a good follow on Twitter or Facebook. Sadly his update today isn't good news, but also isn't terribly surprising.

Manufacturers Say Ammo Shortage Will Stretch Out for Years

“On certain products, we are certainly seeing backlogs that stretch out two years and beyond,” Brett Flaugher, president of Winchester Ammunition, told The Reload. “For those who shoot 9mm and 5.56 ammunition, which are both in high demand, it’s very uncertain how long it will be before people...

thereload.com

 

[NE 7x57]

As soon as ammo hits the shelves it's gone so demand is there, although some of it is reminiscent of the great TP shortage of 2020. So until that sort of panic buying is gone there's not going to be any catching up.

 

[mdwest]

Im not sure this is accurate...

Granted it might take a while.. but.. Im already seeing some (limited) ammo return to the shelves..

I was in an Academy Sports in Memphis this past week.. they had about 100 boxes of Winchester White Box 115gr FMJ 9mm on the shelves and another roughly 50 boxes of Fiocci 9mm.. they were expensive (about $25 for a box of 50.. vs the early 2020 price of about $16).. but they were there

and Ive been seeing 5.56 back on the shelves in my local Scheels and a local Academy here in DFW as well on occasion..

Im not saying things are going to be back to "normal" in the next 12 months.. but its pretty obvious to me things are already improving (I also saw an 8lb jug of reloader15 on the shelf in a gun store in Memphis last week along with probably 20lbs of other 1lb reloader powders)... That gun store also had probably 1500 rounds of 556 (20 round boxes) and a good bit of 9mm and .45 ACP.. although at crazy prices and they were limiting people to 2x boxes per purchase..

90 days ago you couldnt find ANY powders on the shelves.. NO "tactical" or "defense" calibers on the shelf.. and even common hunting calibers were scarce..

 

[Randy F]

It's all a conspiracy. They don't need to take away your guns if they stop you from getting ammo.

Seriously though, it's quite a predicament for the manufacturers to be in...a good problem and a bad problem. As explained, quite a risk involved investing in a big enough ramp up, yet could be left in the dust if they don't. Tough one.

And 9 million new gun owners. What do you think?...3 years before 4.5 million slightly used guns flood the market?

 

[Goose Cracker]

Im not sure this is accurate...

Granted it might take a while.. but.. Im already seeing some (limited) ammo return to the shelves..

I hear what you are saying. But I'm inclined to believe the guys at Hornady and Winchester. The first sentence says "On certain products, we are certainly seeing backlogs that stretch out two years and beyond." So not "all" products are backlogged that far out.

I know they are "talking their book" and I've also seen some limited ammo available here and there. All 9mm and 5.56/223 as you mention. Which makes sense - the ammo manufacturers will produce the highest volume stuff first I'd imagine, which clearly is 9mm and 5.56. But how long do you think it will be before they fulfill orders of 243 or 30-30 as an example?

The price increases aren't surprising - the manufacturers' marginal capacity is using overtime labor and raw materials prices also are up. So even assuming they aren't using current demand to juice margins, you'd expect price increases. And I'm sure there's a little margin padding going on. I'm sympathetic.

Apparently primers are an even bigger issue - according to an interview I saw recently with a Federal/Speer exec he said that primer production historically outpaced loaded ammo, so they sold the excess supply to reloaders. Now, they can't meet demand for loaded ammo so it follows that they'll eat up most/all of that addition primer capacity for the foreseeable future.

I wonder about the future for the 9 million new gun owners as @Randy F mentions. I've introduced a number of folks to firearms in the last 12 months. All for personal defense purposes. Several have applied for and received CCPs. I think they are in it for the long haul. I don't think they'll shoot up much ammo every year, but it won't be zero. If every new gun owner shoots a 20 round box of ammo a year and replaces it, that's 180 million rounds of additional demand. Plus all the additional demand from those of us who aren't new to shooting. There were about 72 million gun owners in the US prior to the latest surge according to a study I read. If we all buy an extra 20 rounds a year, that's 1.44 *billion* rounds of additional demand. A quick google search of annual ammunition production in the US is 9 billion rounds, but only 4 billion rounds of centerfire ammo - inc pistol, rifle, and shotgun. So (ignoring the rimfire for a minute) if everyone decides to purchase just one additional box of 20 centerfire cartridges that's 1.62 billion rounds of additional demand, or an increase of about 41%. In one year. That's without any hording.

It seems perfectly reasonable that it would take a couple years to work through that additional demand to me, but YMMV.

 

[R.M.C.]

Yeah it's weird cuz I happened to stop at Wal-Mart yesterday for a birthday gift and I noticed there was .22 ammo in the ammo case. I bought 2 bricks (325 rds each) . There were 2 left after I bought mine. One was still there for sale this afternoon, more than 24 hours after I got mine. They had a bunch of 12 gauge buckshot too. The employees commented how long the ammo was lasting and there were some TVs on sale that nobody wanted . Weird times.

 

[Gemsbok45]

You can bet on two years. Then the building of inventory.

 

[Inline6]

I have added to the demand not for any reason other than it's hard to find reloading supplies.

Get ready for a long wait on reloading components I'm afraid.

 

[CoElkHunter]

You can bet on two years. Then the building of inventory.

I'm more pessimistic. With the virtual lack of inventory of even shotgun shells, which I have never seen before in the past shortages, I believe we're looking at four years for common hunting cartridges before inventory catches up and prices stabilize. It was almost that long under Obama and we didn't have a pandemic/riots panic buying scenario before his election. I hope I'm wrong?

 

[JimP]

When Obama was in office it took 2 to 3 years before ammo and reloading supplies stabilized a little.

So with Biden I would expect at least that plus you have to figure in the Covid surge during a election year with Trump in office.

I say that in 2022 you will start to see better supplies on the shelves and you won't see it back to normal until 2024.

Right now if you see it you better buy it because the guy standing behind you certainly will.

 

[CoElkHunter]

When Obama was in office it took 2 to 3 years before ammo and reloading supplies stabilized a little.

So with Biden I would expect at least that plus you have to figure in the Covid surge during a election year with Trump in office.

I say that in 2022 you will start to see better supplies on the shelves and you won't see it back to normal until 2024.

Right now if you see it you better buy it because the guy standing behind you certainly will.

I believe your right. The problem as I see it, is that when I or others are staring in amazement at a $50/box of Winchester or Remington .30-06 (I would have said .270 but it's not available) that sold at Wal Mart less than a year ago for $18, with absolutely no intention of buying it. Then, somebody steps up and buys the $50 ammo. I know this is where we are, but the question remains when will it end? I'm guessing later than sooner?

 

[krish]

The word is REMINGTON has ramped up 3 shift production. May see a lot of ammo by hunting seson. That is if Black market guyes dont snatch it all.
Krish

 

[Firebird]

There was a good stock of shotgun ammo on the shelf at sportsman’s warehouse today-NOT the “normal” excess but enough to be encouraged. Also rifle ammo and reloading stuff in better supply than last week. Not hunting season so no real demand right now either. . . I even found .17 hmr at a cal ranch store.

 

[Cervus elaphus]

When Obama was in office it took 2 to 3 years before ammo and reloading supplies stabilized a little.

So with Biden I would expect at least that plus you have to figure in the Covid surge during a election year with Trump in office.

I say that in 2022 you will start to see better supplies on the shelves and you won't see it back to normal until 2024.

Right now if you see it you better buy it because the guy standing behind you certainly will.

I would have thought that using .22 rimfire for practice and reserving the other stuff was practical. Obama's administration bought up a humungous amount of .22 ammo but I wonder why ?

 

[Wyatt Smith]

We have have 9mm and 223 on the shelf at our Farm store fire a few weeks. I guess nobody is willing to pay $15.99 for steel cased 223, and $29.99 for 20 9mm.

 

[Philip Glass]

I am not sure what or who to believe. My feed store just received 3 pallets full of Hornady ammo. Luckily I got a call and got over there. I just got 1 case of .300PRC ($51/box), 1 - 6.5PRC, and 1 case 9mm self defense ammo. I won’t be “that guy” hoarding for no reason. But where in the past I’d keep 3-4 boxes of ammo for something I shoot often now it will be 15-20 boxes.
So how is it that the feed store, who is a brand new FFL dealer, gets pallets of ammo and my three well known gun shops have squat?
I am unconcerned with the 9mm and .223 being in stock it’s the complete lack of hunting ammo that WE NEED that is no where to be found.
Maybe start checking your local feed store
Regards,
Philip

 

[mdwest]

I am not sure what or who to believe. My feed store just received 3 pallets full of Hornady ammo. Luckily I got a call and got over there. I just got 1 case of .300PRC ($51/box), 1 - 6.5PRC, and 1 case 9mm self defense ammo. I won’t be “that guy” hoarding for no reason. But where in the past I’d keep 3-4 boxes of ammo for something I shoot often now it will be 15-20 boxes.
So how is it that the feed store, who is a brand new FFL dealer, gets pallets of ammo and my three well known gun shops have squat?
I am unconcerned with the 9mm and .223 being in stock it’s the complete lack of hunting ammo that WE NEED that is no where to be found.
Maybe start checking your local feed store
Regards,
Philip

Agree... the defense/tactical calibers are the focus right now because of high demand... it’s going to be a while before anyone does a run of something like 7mm STW or .300 H&H...

Thankfully I’m pretty stocked up on calibers I most often hunt with and/or have reloading supplies to support my needs...

I’m far from a hoarder.. but I’ve got enough 308 hunting ammo on hand to last several years at this point (about 250 rounds worth of hand loads and additional supplies).. and will keep at least 10 boxes of my most common calibers on hand at all times from now on..

 

[johnnyblues]

Ammo no matter what your shooting is in high demand. I’m shooting sporting clays every week, luckily myself and my shooting partners bought a pallet of 96 cases several months back and then we bought another 40 cases. I continually buy shells on gun broker when I can get a half way decent price on winning. I currently have over 125 cases of shells on hand.

 

[CoElkHunter]

Ammo no matter what your shooting is in high demand. I’m shooting sporting clays every week, luckily myself and my shooting partners bought a pallet of 96 cases several months back and then we bought another 40 cases. I continually buy shells on gun broker when I can get a half way decent price on winning. I currently have over 125 cases of shells on hand.

I don't think between the Wal Marts and Sportsman's Warehouse HERE, they've had 125 cases of shells combined in the last several months and nothing over 7.5 or 8 shot. None of them have any common centerfire HUNTING ammo either. Wal Mart has nothing. Sportsman's Warehouse, Bass Pro and some smaller stores have 5.56, 9mm, 6.5 this or 6.8 that, Weatherby Mag, Nosler proprietary ammo, and you can buy all the .224 Valkyrie (whatever that is?) stuff you want. But, try and find .270 Win, .308 or even .30-06. I gave my hunting buddy's son a box of .338WM Rem Core Lokts as he had purchased a rifle last fall and went through the couple of boxes he had bought with the rifle. I think I paid $52/box for those over a year ago. Midway is selling that same .338 ammo for $118/box. Absurd! It will all stabilize eventually, but I feel for those who didn't plan ahead and are now having to pay exorbitant ammo prices to play the hunting game.

 

[Goose Cracker]

Ammo no matter what your shooting is in high demand. I’m shooting sporting clays every week, luckily myself and my shooting partners bought a pallet of 96 cases several months back and then we bought another 40 cases. I continually buy shells on gun broker when I can get a half way decent price on winning. I currently have over 125 cases of shells on hand.

Let's see....

If 72 million gun owners each had 31,250 rounds of ammo that would be a paltry 2.25 TRILLION rounds of ammunition. We need a new law in GA about NYers moving down here and buying up all our ammo.

I told Mrs Goose Cracker I was messing with @johnnyblues about his ammo stash and she says "uh, are you sure you have room to give him sh1t about hoarding ammo?"