Politics

spike.t said:

Mmm...pundits have been predicting the fall of China for years...but doesn't seem to actually happen....

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Agreed, I’m not saying China will fall…..

I’m saying they will renegotiate trade to keep that from happening.

A film flam artist

I love that expression

I struggle with my feelings towards this Presidency

On the one hand - his attack on the pseudo science of the past 20 years or so, I applaud

Net zero
Females with pricks
Hand outs to the bone idle
Getting rid of criminals and free loaders pretending to be asylum claimants

Getting rid of All these things I agree with

However

The idea that he is some kind of business or international genius is - quite frankly - absurd

He is an over privileged bombast who has been catapulted to stardom by the inadequacies of the opposition

He is no more an intellectual genius than my dog

Who- though clever - is licking his arse as I speak

Makes me wonder where the US’s collective tongue is today

deewayne2003 said:

Agreed, I’m not saying China will fall…..

I’m saying they will renegotiate trade to keep that from happening.

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Yeah but I doubt China will roll over ..they control the vast majority of exotic rare earth metals/materials needed in most tech products...from phones to military hardware.....I posted earlier about the hold they have....so will wait and see ...but Xi will play hardball....

China does not have a consumer based economy. The government builds almost everything to prop up the economy.

The only reason I can think of to continue a trade war with the US is to have a scapegoat. They haven’t bottomed out yet. But they will. And Trumps tariffs could be the excuse they need. A continued trade war could finish China off. But they were already steadily headed down anyway.

China at the bottom doesn’t mean they no longer exist. Many seem to think of a country going under means they disappear from the world or are no longer a threat.

Even at the bottom China will still have the same amount of people on the same geography. And a military. It’s that they get more dangerous as they get more desperate. If they “go under” it’s more likely to spur them into laying a Naval blockade on Taiwan.

deewayne2003 said:

Agreed, I’m not saying China will fall…..

I’m saying they will renegotiate trade to keep that from happening.

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I don't see China at risk of falling at all.

They run a single party, command economy, and repressive state. They are far built to suffer "pain" and keep functioning better than any rich nation democracy.

RLD said:

I don't see China at risk of falling at all.

They run a single party, command economy, and repressive state. They are far built to suffer "pain" and keep functioning better than any rich nation democracy.

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You are just about the only "economist" who holds that view. How did all that single party, command economy, and repression work out for the Soviet Union?

In fairness, China's economy is far, far more free market than the USSR.

Red Leg said:

You are just about the only "economist" who holds that view. How did all that single party, command economy, and repression work out for the Soviet Union?

In fairness, China's economy is far, far more free market than the USSR.

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China is very different, socially, culturally and historically than Russia/USSR. I don't think you can forecast their outcome based on the USSR's experience.

While not an economist I do spend a lot of time with people in that and related fields, some of whom have published a great deal about China, and none of them seem to think China is on the brink of collapse.

spike.t said:

Yeah but I doubt China will roll over ..they control the vast majority of exotic rare earth metals/materials needed in most tech products...from phones to military hardware.....I posted earlier about the hold they have....so will wait and see ...but Xi will play hardball....

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Agreed again, if it comes to a war with China the opening salvo will be financial and supply based.

Xi could wipe apple off the map by nationalizing their assets and several other USA companies; we need to take that power away and it won’t happen overnight.


Chinas export engine is grinding to a halt with many export companies already underwater and operating at a loss just to keep their doors open.

Xi will indeed play hard ball, it’s just a matter of how long he can play it.

I blame USA companies and government policy failures for decades for allowing this to happen.

Especially the likes of apple, their products are made in Foxconn factories that have suicide prevention nets stretched around the roofs; and that’s not just for individuals attempting suicide, there have been multiple instances of mass suicides in Chinese factories.

Altitude sickness said:

Analysis: China’s Economy and Its Influence on Global Markets | U.S. Bank

China remains a major global economic player, with the second-largest economy in the world and although China’s growth has moderated, investing in emerging market funds offers potential growth opportunities for investors seeking exposure to China’s capital markets.

www.usbank.com

China does not have a consumer based economy. The government builds almost everything to prop up the economy.

The only reason I can think of to continue a trade war with the US is to have a scapegoat. They haven’t bottomed out yet. But they will. And Trumps tariffs could be the excuse they need. A continued trade war could finish China off. But they were already steadily headed down anyway.

China at the bottom doesn’t mean they no longer exist. Many seem to think of a country going under means they disappear from the world or are no longer a threat.

Even at the bottom China will still have the same amount of people on the same geography. And a military. It’s that they get more dangerous as they get more desperate. If they “go under” it’s more likely to spur them into laying a Naval blockade on Taiwan.

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I represented an investment I made (for the company I led) in a Chinese company. I sat on the board of that company for a number of years and spent a fair bit of time in China. IMO the Chinese are extremely adept capitalists, and are allowed to be so as long as they don’t run afoul of the PRC. It’s a very interesting society and nothing like the brand of communism we saw in the USSR.

bowjijohn said:

A film flam artist

I love that expression

I struggle with my feelings towards this Presidency

On the one hand - his attack on the pseudo science of the past 20 years or so, I applaud

Net zero
Females with pricks
Hand outs to the bone idle
Getting rid of criminals and free loaders pretending to be asylum claimants

Getting rid of All these things I agree with

However

The idea that he is some kind of business or international genius is - quite frankly - absurd

He is an over privileged bombast who has been catapulted to stardom by the inadequacies of the opposition

He is no more an intellectual genius than my dog

Who- though clever - is licking his arse as I speak

Makes me wonder where the US’s collective tongue is today

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I can tell you where our collective middle fingers are at.

Brent in Az said:

I can tell you where our collective middle fingers are at.

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I really really hope that your middle finger is correct and my dog’s tongue is just a tongue

Else we are all in the poo

Trump is turning the world upside down, and it's about time someone has the balls to do it.

deewayne2003 said:

Xi could wipe apple off the map by nationalizing their assets and several other USA companies; we need to take that power away and it won’t happen overnight.

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Apple doesn't have any assets per se in China. As you stated, Foxxonn has built the factories there to make iPhones. Apple pays Foxxonn to manufacture the iPhones. Raw materials are either bought directly by Apple and shipped to Foxxonn or they buy it for Apple (not sure which).

If Xi were to nationalize the Foxxonn plant then all of those Chinese workers would be out of a job. But Apple would not be wiped off the map.

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Red Leg said:

You are expressing what I believe are two truly an alien concepts to me. I hasten to add that I am not meaning to be dismissive of what you wrote. But, I truly do not think that way, and have studied that art of leadership thing a bit as well.

First, I do not "believe" in any politician. I am not a follower of any leader - politically, militarily, or corporately. In an election, my vote is purely a hiring decision. Which of two candidates is most likely to run the country in a way that achieves goals that I think are most critical to the nation's and my interests. This was a particularly hard choice this year because I think both candidates were deeply flawed, as are the wings of the parties that they most represented. The woke left and neo-isolationist right are about equally dangerous to our domestic and international interests respectively.

That Joe Biden was a terrible leader and his administration a poor steward of our nation, does not guarantee Trump will be any better - merely different. Except at the border, I have seen little from him to date that builds confidence and a lot on the management and foreign policy side that is very concerning. Over the last week, I can add his stewardship of the economy.

Secondly, I am a conservative. I despise radical change. Throughout history such change has a way of destroying the best of any culture. William F. Buckley Jr, one of the greats of American conservatism, famously described his mission as standing “athwart history, yelling STOP.” Roger Seruton is a less well known but equally brilliant conservative writer stated, “Conservatism starts from a sentiment that all mature people can readily share: the sentiment that good things are easily destroyed, but not easily created.”

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My first definition of leadership came from Lt. Col. Merrill Shepherd during my 3 years of R.O.T.C. at Leavenworth High School. He told us "...Leadership is the art of obtaining someone's willing cooperation". Fort Leavenworth and its "Command and General Staff College" I'm sure had a very positive influence and support on the development of leadership in our military science curriculum. We raised the flag every morning as a buglar played "To the Colors"....sometimes I had the privilege. Everyone on campus stopped and stood still as this happened. I suppose the U.S.Army helped develop love of country and respect for its leaders.

Later, as a young Marine lieutenant, I was taught your men had to believe in you if you wanted to lead them well.....treat them well, look out for their welfare, but mission first. Formal civilian education and leadership is a special kind of "something".....some good things, but a lot of theory and definitely a good example of wanting to maintain the "status quo".

I'm sure as you came up through the ranks to General, you had a lot of men who followed you not just because they had to, but because they believed in you and what you stood for. With your combat experience, I would venture to say men lived and died with a belief in you. In my den, I have a quote attributed to Teddy Roosevelt, "Dare Greatly" that was read to our battalion back in 1976 by our Battalion Commander, Major McKeown.....it made an impression and stuck with me.

He believed in it and helped create that "fire" that has stayed with me just as Lt. Col. Shepherd did in 1967. So, I do not quite understand your statement "not 'believe' in any politician. I am not a follower of any leader-politically, militarily, or corporately." Even as a kid, I believed in John Kennedy...even though my parents were Republican. I believed in Reagan, as a man and as a leader. I believe in very few House or Senate Republicans....too many....most I see as "gutless weasels"....my opinion.

I believe we share love of country........we disagree on process to get there. I hope you are wrong on the tariff issue......I posted an opinion on Trump's possible logic in post #55,667....perhaps the overall theory will hold true. Tanks responded to a comment I made in post #55702 regarding our ability to provide the quantity of labor needed to regenerate manufacturing in the U.S.......a good point which I don't have an answer for.

The other point we disagree on is the need for "radical change" in this country....I don't see how we can keep on the same financial path without a collapse in the near future....Senate and House seem to care less.....no action.....buttheads.....but, these buttheads were elected by my fellow Americans....Trump is on his own again.

You have my respect...Best

Tanks said:

Except, Trump tariffs are based on tariffs plus trade deficit. For example, Israel has 0% tariffs and got hit with a 17% tariffs due to trade imbalance.

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Yes I know and I was one of the first ones on this site to point out the formula. Netanyahu is meeting with Trump this week. Watch and learn. A deal will be made.

Tanks said:

Apple doesn't have any assets per se in China. As you stated, Foxxonn has built the factories there to make iPhones. Apple pays Foxxonn to manufacture the iPhones. Raw materials are either bought directly by Apple and shipped to Foxxonn or they buy it for Apple (not sure which).

If Xi were to nationalize the Foxxonn plant then all of those Chinese workers would be out of a job. But Apple would not be wiped off the map.

​

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Globalist Gates is no doubt a chinese asset. I would gladly watch his little empire crumble.

BigSteve57 said:

After hearing reports of success from my over-landing friends I just ordered the Starlnk mini roam 50GB/mo to mount on our vehicle to take while traveling and camping. We'll see how it goes.

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You will love it.

bowjijohn said:

I really really hope that your middle finger is correct and my dog’s tongue is just a tongue

Else we are all in the poo

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The only ones that are in the poo, are countries that have been milking the USA for far too long.
Trump just dropped the hammer on all of them.

Bloody hell at this rate Green Land will be buying the USA…..wonder what they will rename the gulf? The Denmark straight

Brent in Az said:

Globalist Gates is no doubt a chinese asset. I would gladly watch his little empire crumble.

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What does Gates have anything to do with Apple or US factory assets in China?