Yeah, but (somehow there is always a but).... Yes, increased testing will obviously result in more positive outcomes. Great fodder for headlines. But, there is more to it than that. In this case I'm referring to the
percent positive or the number of positives cases (the numerator) divided by the number of tests performed (the denominator). If the percentage positive rate is constant the number of cases increases proportionally with the number of tests. The problem is that currently (7/2/20; 12:49 pm EST) 23 states are increasing in their percent positive tests. The
only way that is possible is for the numerator to increase more rapidly than the denominator (if you have ever tried to improve your grade at the end of a grading period, you have some sense of how that works). Or in other words, the spread of the virus is increasing faster than the increase in the number of tests. No bueno. There is still more to the equation, like the percent of positive tests that result in hospitalization (I don't know where to find that number), the mean/median age of positive tests (which I understand is going down, at least in some areas), and of course the mortality rate as a function of several variables. The number of deaths/day has been decreasing since about April 20th. But (again a but) it will take a few weeks to see if there is a change in the number of deaths/day with the increase in percent positive cases. Keep your fingers crossed that the trend continues!
Additionally, what is also impossible to find (at least for me) is the percent of positive cases that recover (don't die) that show long term effects, perhaps permanent effects; lung damage, liver damage, kidney damage, loss of smell or taste or both.....
Another interesting data point is that that the number of positive cases has been essentially constant in Minnesota for the past two weeks. The reason I mention Minnesota is that is where the demonstrations started and, much to my surprise, do not seem to be having much of an effect on the rate of infection, at least not yet. Go figure.
I would assume that it is apparent that I
am not in favor of trivializing the virus. Yes, life goes on. The freakin' virus is with us, like it or not - and we have to adapt to it. What the data from Minnesota would suggest is that wearing a mask helps. I included that piece of data as expert advice doesn't seem to carry as much weight as it used to. So, wear one! It's not a freakin' big deal!
