Politics

[Certus]

I am pretty sure I fall under the high earner group, and there is a pinch but I am guessing it is a bit different. You mention not making investments which is where I feel like my "pinch" comes into play. I am continuing my investments and invest strategy as before inflation, I dont feel investments are disposable income but rather what I need to do first to insure my long term stability. My goal is to maximize these so I feel a pinch or at least to maximize my budget. So if groceries are up, and home insurance is up, and property taxes are up, this impacts my disposable income and put pressure on my overall invest strategy, or minimizes my disposable income. Not sure if that makes sense.

It is a bit of the issue I have with the FIRE lifestyle, is they live below their means with the idea to retire early, the issue being they have to maintain that lifestyle and they can't dip into their investments. I just don't understand the point of living like you have no money so you can have money.

Makes sense, thanks. I’d like to invest but paying house off first.
What’s FIRE?

 

[LivingTheDream]

Makes sense, thanks. I’d like to invest but paying house off first.
What’s FIRE?

IMO, depending on the interest rate and if it is fixed might be better investing than paying off the house. Not financial advice but if you are locked in for like 3%, there are better returns out there.

FIRE is financially independent retire early, there is some good principles to it but I disagree with the mindset.

 

[Hunt anything]

Trump had 4 years in office.

If he was actually radically different to all previous presidents, then why did he perform almost exactly the same on every metric?

He held unemployment at exactly the same level as Obama had them at in 2016. He held inflation at exactly the same mean level as Obama. He grew GDP at exactly the same rate as Obama. He increased US national debt FASTER than Obama.

To quote 'Moneyball', "If he's a good hitter, than why doesn't he hit good?"

He certainly said all the right things, but the proof, as they say, is in the pudding.

To your last point, on that we agree 100%, I just take that statement to it's logical conclusion: stock market performance, inflation, unemployment, GDP growth are almost 100% out of the hands of ANY Administration. It's a free market, government regulation doesn't have much influence compared to external facts such as COVID, or recessions, or loss of consumer confidence. That's demonstrated pretty well in the data; if administration did matter, we'd see measurable differences between D & R terms, and we don't.

One thing Trump did and has pledged to do again is to decrease burdensome government regulations on some segments of the govt and industries. Most presidents have increased regulations.

He did have a handle on illegal immigration, now Harris says it’s a problem but hasn’t been a problem in the last 3 1/2 years, that has driven a housing shortage and rent increases so an administration does have effects . People do loose their jobs of an administration pushes increase in minimum wage or at least have reduced hours. Just my opinion of course.

 

[Certus]

IMO, depending on the interest rate and if it is fixed might be better investing than paying off the house. Not financial advice but if you are locked in for like 3%, there are better returns out there.

FIRE is financially independent retire early, there is some good principles to it but I disagree with the mindset.

6% here on variable. We’re 12 months out from having it fully paid off so I’m going to keep pouring funds into it. I guess that’s my investing for now.
Then it’s shares or property?

 

[sgt_zim]

Makes sense, thanks. I’d like to invest but paying house off first.
What’s FIRE?

Sorta depends on where you are financially and how risk tolerant you are. If you're flush with cash, then just pay off the house. Note that having $500K or even $1M in the bank isn't "flush with cash." It may seem like it if you're sitting on 20 or 30k in your saving account, but it just isn't.

If you are a W-2 employee, the only way you're going to grow your wealth is through investment. My mtg is 3.125%. My RE investments are making between about 7% and 11% cash-on-cash annually. With $1M invested, rental income is between about 70 and 110k/year.

You could pay off your mortgage, but you can't buy groceries or go on vacation with a paid off mortgage.

 

[Alistair]

I would disagree with this with the caveat that COVID messed everything up. US debt was still increasing but at lower percentage than in the Obama years, with one exception the 2012 to 2013 years. Inflation was less in 2019 going into 2020 than in the later Obama years.

The metric that is missing in the above analysis is real wage growth, which was increasing a pretty high rate especially when compared to Biden years. Using the baseball terms, this would be batting average with runner in scoring position. Meaning the hits had a bigger impact. I think this is why people say the Trump economy was better because they felt it.

On the US debt thing, I'd agree that prior to COVID it was increasing more slowly than the early Obama years, but no slower than Obama's second term. I'd also argue that it was increasing in Obama's first term due primarily to the '08 crash, just as the latter half of Trump's term looks awful primarily due to COVID.

On real wage growth, I'll concede Trump was better than Obama, but I'd point out the he's no better than Biden on that topic:

Which again leads me to conclude that factors external to the specific administration were more important than which party was in power.

 

[sgt_zim]

Sorta depends on where you are financially and how risk tolerant you are. If you're flush with cash, then just pay off the house. Note that having $500K or even $1M in the bank isn't "flush with cash." It may seem like it if you're sitting on 20 or 30k in your saving account, but it just isn't.

If you are a W-2 employee, the only way you're going to grow your wealth is through investment. My mtg is 3.125%. My RE investments are making between about 7% and 11% cash-on-cash annually. With $1M invested, rental income is between about 70 and 110k/year.

You could pay off your mortgage, but you can't buy groceries or go on vacation with a paid off mortgage.

IF you could borrow at 3% or so against your equity, that's a no-brainer. But at 6-7% current mortgage rates, you're just treading water unless you want to bet it all on property appreciation.

 

[Alistair]

One thing Trump did and has pledged to do again is to decrease burdensome government regulations on some segments of the govt and industries. Most presidents have increased regulations.

He did have a handle on illegal immigration, now Harris says it’s a problem but hasn’t been a problem in the last 3 1/2 years, that has driven a housing shortage and rent increases so an administration does have effects . People do loose their jobs of an administration pushes increase in minimum wage or at least have reduced hours. Just my opinion of course.

On his burdensome regulations, he did do that. But what impact did it have on GDP growth, or unemployment? None. It helped the S&P though, so that's something.

Immigration, crime, foreign policy I think the administration does have rather more influence on, as many of the factors are within their control.

Trump is undoubtedly better on immigration, a wash on crime, better during his first term on foreign policy, but a questionable wild card for the next one, if he gets in.

Crime stats:

 

[Hunt anything]

@Alistair , on the above chart. The violent crime drop has been proven somewhat skewed as many of the larger cities with a lot of violent crime don’t report their stats to the FBI.

And many property crimes aren’t prosecuted anymore or are down graded to misdemeanors.

 

[Alistair]

@Alistair , on the above chart. The violent crime drop has been proven somewhat skewed as many of the larger cities with a lot of violent crime don’t report their stats to the FBI.

And many property crimes aren’t prosecuted anymore or are down graded to misdemeanors.

Good to know.

That chart was the results of a 5 second Google, so if you have better data to share that'd be appreciated!

 

[LivingTheDream]

6% here on variable. We’re 12 months out from having it fully paid off so I’m going to keep pouring funds into it. I guess that’s my investing for now.
Then it’s shares or property?

Well done sir! Congratulations on getting it paid off!!

 

[Hunt anything]

Good to know.

That chart was the results of a 5 second Google, so if you have better data to share that'd be appreciated!

The FBI issued a statement on it late last month. Can’t remember where I heard it, I think it was on one of top of the hour news cast on the radio.
I’m sure someone on here can find it, BUT I don’t know how reliable ANY news outlets are these days.

 

[Certus]

Sorta depends on where you are financially and how risk tolerant you are. If you're flush with cash, then just pay off the house. Note that having $500K or even $1M in the bank isn't "flush with cash." It may seem like it if you're sitting on 20 or 30k in your saving account, but it just isn't.

If you are a W-2 employee, the only way you're going to grow your wealth is through investment. My mtg is 3.125%. My RE investments are making between about 7% and 11% cash-on-cash annually. With $1M invested, rental income is between about 70 and 110k/year.

You could pay off your mortgage, but you can't buy groceries or go on vacation with a paid off mortgage.

What’s W-2? Gah I need to just google lol.

 

[Tanks]

…

FIRE is financially independent retire early, there is some good principles to it but I disagree with the mindset.

Yeah, I did that at age 33. Paid cash for a house on the sand in Newport Beach, CA, new Porsche 911, 45’ sailboat at the marina, season tickets to Lakers behind the bench, became an LA opera patron, and a revolving door of college co-Eds. Partying, playing tennis daily, sailing and occasional hunting plus international travel with the girlfriend of the month. Living the dream, I thought. Lasted about 5 years before I was bored out of my mind. Next chapter, made a deal with myself to take a month off each quarter. That has been working for me for the last 35 years.

 

[BSO Dave]

Trump had 4 years in office.

If he was actually radically different to all previous presidents, then why did he perform almost exactly the same on every metric?

LMFAO! You OBVIOUSLY haven't read or understood anything I said in my reply to your "data"...

Trump had 3 years and made a very measurable impact on several of the metrics that you fail to acknowledge... Year 4 was Covid... A "metric" as you put it, that has NEVER been experienced by any POTUS to date... Your Moneyball quote falls flat... Nobody can "hit" when you've been forced to stop the game... Prior to the stoppage of said game, he was batting around .500 with a slugging percentage of around .800 on the biggest issues...

Inflation of 1.76% in 2019 and 1.23% in 2020 before Covid, is hardly the "same" as previous Administrations... He had 3 years... He was literally forced to shut down the world's most significant economy... He needed 8 to keep the trend going...Now he will have to start over again, but at least it will be in the right direction again with sane and competent economic policies...

As far as our "agreement" in my last statement, we do not agree... Trump economic policies were making a significant difference bucking the trend of indifference that you assert between dem and republican Administrations... Covid destroyed that trend, and his loss in 2020 did not allow him to complete 8 years of running the government like a business rather the bipartisan Ponzi scheme it has been... He pulled back the curtain on both sides of the isle and they both tried to destroy him for it...

 

[Red Leg]

Sorta depends on where you are financially and how risk tolerant you are. If you're flush with cash, then just pay off the house. Note that having $500K or even $1M in the bank isn't "flush with cash." It may seem like it if you're sitting on 20 or 30k in your saving account, but it just isn't.

If you are a W-2 employee, the only way you're going to grow your wealth is through investment. My mtg is 3.125%. My RE investments are making between about 7% and 11% cash-on-cash annually. With $1M invested, rental income is between about 70 and 110k/year.

You could pay off your mortgage, but you can't buy groceries or go on vacation with a paid off mortgage.

I think your final point is exactly correct. Realestate, particularly one's own home. makes great sense as a fully "paid" investment, if it is truly a wealth asset. For instance, in our case we have other investments and a steady and relatively safe retirement income. Were I to drop dead in the midst of a housing slump, my spouse would still have the wherewithal to decide when to eventually sell it. I would note we have tripled our initial investment in the place over the last ten years.

I should also note, until twenty years ago, that strategy would have been impossible for us. Neither my spouse nor I came from families who had the means to create trust funds. Most of my military career was largely paycheck to paycheck. A decade running a successful P&L center of a major corporation, freed us from that condition. Looking back, I simply wish that I might have discovered the power of mutual funds tied to the S&P 500 a couple of decades sooner.

 

[Alistair]

LMFAO! You OBVIOUSLY haven't read or understood anything I said in my reply to your "data"...

Trump had 3 years and made a very measurable impact on several of the metrics that you fail to acknowledge... Year 4 was Covid... A "metric" as you put it, that has NEVER been experienced by any POTUS to date... Your Moneyball quote falls flat... Nobody can "hit" when you've been forced to stop the game... Prior to the stoppage of said game, he was batting around .500 with a slugging percentage of around .800 on the biggest issues...

Inflation of 1.76% in 2019 and 1.23% in 2020 before Covid, is hardly the "same" as previous Administrations... He had 3 years... He was literally forced to shut down the world's most significant economy... He needed 8 to keep the trend going...Now he will have to start over again, but at least it will be in the right direction again with sane and competent economic policies...

As far as our "agreement" in my last statement, we do not agree... Trump economic policies were making a significant difference bucking the trend of indifference that you assert between dem and republican Administrations... Covid destroyed that trend, and his loss in 2020 did not allow him to complete 8 years of running the government like a business rather the bipartisan Ponzi scheme it has been...

I read it, I just disagree.

1.76% or 1.23% inflation is very similar to previous administrations.

Years at that level or lower since WW2:
2015
2014
2013
2012
2010
2008
2001
1998
1997
1986
1965
1964
1963
1962
1961
1960
1959
1958
1955
1954
1953
1952
1949

About 1/3 the time, basically. 23 years out of 79. Nothing unusual, nothing special. Obama did the same for 6 out of his 8 years. The 'trend' Trump generated was to continue the exact same trajectory as was already in place. that's very evident in those charts I posted.

COVID was certainly an important metric, and it was certainly out of Trump's hands. Which is why I tend to judge him more on 2016-2019, than I do on 2020. Although I could point out that a lot of the inflation and growth in national debt during Biden's term comes from COVID measures, so if Trump gets a pass on COVID impacts, so too should Biden. Only fair, after all.

 

[sgt_zim]

I don't care who you are, this right here is just funny.

 

[Hunt anything]

@Alistair , I don’t give Trump a pass on Covid, shutting down an economy was new to everyone and some spending measures probably needed to be taken but when Biden took over we were already coming out of the shut down and on the road to recovery and Biden just kept his foot on the spending peddle and never took it off.

 

[Alistair]

@Alistair , I don’t give Trump a pass on Covid, shutting down an economy was new to everyone and some spending measures probably needed to be taken but when Biden took over we were already coming out of the shut down and on the road to recovery and Biden just kept his foot on the spending peddle and never took it off.

Certainly an argument can be made for that interpretation, I'll give you that.

Personally, I don't think it was particularly well handled by Trump OR Biden, but hindsight is a wonderful thing, and playing it safe with levels of risk tolerance at the time was certainly justifiable considering the information at hand, even if it wasn't the route I wanted to see taken.

In all honesty, I'd probably agree that Biden was a little worse than Trump there, but it's hard to say with certainty what Trump might had done in an alternate universe, so who knows really!