Politics

I haven't looked at the numbers but offhand it seems that Atlas and Trafalgar continue to be among the best pollsters.
 
Wheels said:
I haven't looked at the numbers but offhand it seems that Atlas and Trafalgar continue to be among the best pollsters.
Click to expand...
Nate Silver seems to have gone into hiding since last night. His model is going to need more tweaking. Ann Seltzer will be years getting beyond her Iowa fairytale - people made bets based on the sense of changed momentum this fantasy caused over the weekend.
 
mdwest said:
Contractors are actually probably a really good solution to the problem (at least in some situations)...

The standard USED to be... the government has something it needs done... that "project" might have a life span of 1 year.. or a decade.. but whatever it is we're talking about is not an anticipated long term operation that is enduring or has no end....

So the govt hires a contractor to cover that task..


Starting with the Obama Administration, then continuing with Trump to a lessor degree.. but definitely continuing.. and then EXPLODING with Biden... Things began to change...

The fed govt started playing a shell game... it would show itself reducing its budget for contracted services and removing contracted positions from projects... but then would replace them with govt employees... so.. the same work is getting done.. by the same person that was always doing the work.. but they just flipped that person from being a contractor to a USG employee.. all while telling you, the tax payer they were "reducing" spend on contracted services (they were indeed reducing spend on contracted services.. while increasing spend on employee wages/benefits

We've actually had the US Govt steal 4 of our employees in the last 6 months alone.. They contract us to hire people to do a task.. then a few months after we hire them, the govt hires them out from under us as either a GS or a PSC to do the exact same thing we hired them to do..

The problem is.. that while its "cheaper" in the short term for them to do that, its FAR more expensive in the long term (not to mention its an incredibly shitty way to treat your vendors)... and once you put these people on the govt payroll its next to impossible to remove them... so in 1-5 years when the project they were hired to execute is over with.. now what? youve just got spare people sitting around on the govt payroll with little or nothing to do all day... getting paid at rates generally 5-15% above industry averages for whatever work they are supposed to be doing..

Total number of Fed employees in 2021 - 2.85M
Total number of Fed employees in 2022 - 2.87M
Total number of Fed employees in 2023 - 2.93M

Bureau of Labor statistics for Fed Employees in 2024 isnt available yet, but is believed the number will be nudging up to close to the 3M mark this year..
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Thanks for your insight and explanation.
 
Wheels said:
Thanks for your insight and explanation.
Click to expand...

I just realized I didnt finish the why contractors might be a good solution explaination...

What the Govt COULD do (and should do in many cases) is.. start weening GS and PSC employees off the govt tit... if they are assigned to a project that has a known end/life cycle, when those GS or PSC employees retire or transfer or get promoted, or whatever happens to them that causes them to no longer work on that project.. DO NOT backfill them with another GS... backfill them with a contractor...

that way when the project ends in a couple of years... so does the associated position..

you can start to reduce the size of the govt through natural attrition...


What they have been doing for the last 16 years is essentially replacing short term contractors with long term fed employees that stay on the payroll long after whatever they were hired to do is no longer being pursued by the govt...

Walk into the US State Dept building in DC... or the Hoffman Building.. or pretty much any US Military installation in the US... and just look around... it will sicken you to see how many "blue badge" people (federal employees) are just sitting around doing not a damn thing for most of the day... producing little to nothing.... which in many cases actually isnt their fault.. they'll have 4 people assigned to a task that really is only enough for 1 person to complete.. because they need to find shit for all of these people to do...
 
The sunrise this morning!

464974695_18471319822002102_7825530722012535735_n.jpg
 
Red Leg said:
Nate Silver seems to have gone into hiding since last night. His model is going to need more tweaking. Ann Seltzer will be years getting beyond her Iowa fairytale - people made bets based on the sense of changed momentum this fantasy caused over the weekend.
Click to expand...

What I find hysterical is Allan Lichtman going after Nate Silver for getting it wrong...

When Lichtman got it even more wrong than Silver lol..

Ive gotten to where I put somewhere between zero an no faith in any polling or election modeling that predicts outcomes... I listened to all of them in 2016 and was absolutely certain Clinton was going to be our first female POTUS...... WRONG!

then listened to them all again in 2020 and was certain Trump would retain the White House... WRONG!

and let them get inside my head a little bit this time around and allowed myself to discount the reality I was seeing all around me (all of the right indicators were there to assure us of a Trump win.. but I couldnt convince myself it was true... because everyone other than the Las Vegas odds makers were swearing it was either Kamala's race.. or that at best Trump would only barely eeek out a win if absolutely everything went his way.... WRONG!

Im just going to watch betting websites in 2028... they seem to have the right algorithm in play..
 
mdwest said:
What I find hysterical is Allan Lichtman going after Nate Silver for getting it wrong...

When Lichtman got it even more wrong than Silver lol..

Ive gotten to where I put somewhere between zero an no faith in any polling or election modeling that predicts outcomes... I listened to all of them in 2016 and was absolutely certain Clinton was going to be our first female POTUS...... WRONG!

then listened to them all again in 2020 and was certain Trump would retain the White House... WRONG!

and let them get inside my head a little bit this time around and allowed myself to discount the reality I was seeing all around me (all of the right indicators were there to assure us of a Trump win.. but I couldnt convince myself it was true... because everyone other than the Las Vegas odds makers were swearing it was either Kamala's race.. or that at best Trump would only barely eeek out a win if absolutely everything went his way.... WRONG!

Im just going to watch betting websites in 2028... they seem to have the right algorithm in play..
Click to expand...
There's a very good reason most of us call it Pollaganda.
 
WellThatsNotRight said:
What is most disappointing is that this really cements the far right recentering of the Republican Party. Both parties have moved far from center but the R is going to stay that way for the foreseeable future.
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As Razorback already pointed out, this is nonsense...

The republican party has changed, but not in the sense that you assert... The new republican party has returned to populism while rejecting the elitism, cronyism, and corruptions of the RINOS. They have re-embraced the Constitution and rule of law in this country. Most importantly, they have reaffirmed the forgotten middle class which is the real heart and base of the new republican party and the MAGA movement... "Right-wing extremism" which has been the left's go-to talking point since Obama's first term has been exposed for the lie that it is... The concepts of patriotism and putting Americans' best interests first are not, and never were extreme positions. They are fundamental ideologies that every American should embrace. It's the left's insane, hard left ideologies that have propagandized these common-core American principles in their failed attempt to sew division and conquer...

Too many radical democrats have lurched hard left, and too many more so-called dem leaders have capitulated and pandered to them out of fear... It came back around to bite them in the ass this time... Common sense has won a 4-year reprieve, but the division remains, and will remain as long as the dems continue their double-time march toward these radically left ideologies... Unfortunately, I fear we as a nation have reached the point where the left's indoctrination is far too deep for most dems to realize their misguided thinking along with their ability to return to reality...

I think it was Brit Hume who insightfully said last night that success as a county is the best unifier... It's a wonderful thought, although I am not as optimistic as he is... The left has proven time and again they are willing to prioritize their emotional agendas above their own self-interests, or for the good of the country... Our mutual success as a country is not what they really want...
 
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Interesting what the democrat has to say....makes a change...

 
Red Leg said:
Nate Silver seems to have gone into hiding since last night. His model is going to need more tweaking. Ann Seltzer will be years getting beyond her Iowa fairytale - people made bets based on the sense of changed momentum this fantasy caused over the weekend.
Click to expand...

Wheels said:
I haven't looked at the numbers but offhand it seems that Atlas and Trafalgar continue to be among the best pollsters.
Click to expand...

mdwest said:
What I find hysterical is Allan Lichtman going after Nate Silver for getting it wrong...

When Lichtman got it even more wrong than Silver lol..

Ive gotten to where I put somewhere between zero an no faith in any polling or election modeling that predicts outcomes... I listened to all of them in 2016 and was absolutely certain Clinton was going to be our first female POTUS...... WRONG!

then listened to them all again in 2020 and was certain Trump would retain the White House... WRONG!

and let them get inside my head a little bit this time around and allowed myself to discount the reality I was seeing all around me (all of the right indicators were there to assure us of a Trump win.. but I couldnt convince myself it was true... because everyone other than the Las Vegas odds makers were swearing it was either Kamala's race.. or that at best Trump would only barely eeek out a win if absolutely everything went his way.... WRONG!

Im just going to watch betting websites in 2028... they seem to have the right algorithm in play..
Click to expand...

I have been following this channel on You Tube for a few weeks: Karamursel Vote. This was their last call on Saturday. We will know soon, but it seems they may have been spot on.

My diagnosis is that the Democrats committed suicide on the altar of elitism and wokism....

1730923383998.png
 
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As the person who preached that politics is downstream from culture and was the instigator of the Tea Party/MAGA movement, Andrew Breitbart has to be smiling today. Probably having a cigar with Rush.
 
Sadly I can't find the best video clip of the evening anymore.

There was a gay man holding a Harris/Walz sign, he was black out drunk and using a bull horn to scream at dejected Harris supporters as they walked out of the rally/canceled party.....

"WE'RE NOT GOING BACKKKKKK!, WE'RE NOT GOING BACKKKKKK!"

Here's a really good compilation though....
 
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