I posted this a little while back. I think every Russian apologist, defenders of a 17th century empire that holds nations, cultures and its own historic peoples in a form of serfdom, should consider. Three plus long years ago, claiming itself to be the second most powerful army in the world, Russia unleashed its battalion battle groups on Ukraine it what would be a brutal operation of conquest lasting a few weeks at the most. Strategically, the front lines have barely moved since Russia fled Kharkiv in headlong defeat. Those are facts.
Here are a few more observations that I also posted about the same time noting Russian strategic achievements.
After all, instead of a potential Ukraine/NATO border, Russia has achieved one over a thousand kilometers long thanks to Finland. The Baltic, once an area of constant concern to the West, is now a NATO lake thanks to that other NATO surprise known as Sweden. Kaliningrad, once a thorn in NATO's side, is now an indefensible Russian strategic liability that might as well revert to being called Konigsberg. On the economic front, the economy is in a slow motion collapse with interest and inflation rates ballooning, while petro-dollars currently hover almost forty dollars a barrel below the February of 2022 price. One might also check that ruble exchange rate. Things are going so well that the little KGB thug in the Kremlin is forced to go on his knees to North Korea and Iran because his powerful strategic partner China has determined it is better to sit this one out. Putin has even managed to get Western Europe to up its defense spending and end its strategic dependence on Russian natural gas. That is indeed an awesome list of accomplishments in just less than thirty-six months.
Those "achievements" will be the true legacy of this war.
I think the little guy in the t-shirt and the brave people he leads have succeeded remarkably well in making a laughing stock of Russian arms. And whatever logic you may attempt to use, every minute Ukrainian forces occupy a millimeter of Russian territory makes the little KGB thug in Moscow look ever weaker.
I suspect we eventually will find that the estimates of Russian battlefield deaths will by even higher than offered by the US and UK. While modernizing their lost army, Russia apparently decided to retain 19th century field medical capability. Most Western estimates are based upon a 3 to 1 WIA to KIA ratio. The US achieves 6-12 to 1 - but we care about such things. Newly emerging analysis suggests the actual casualty rate is closer to 1 to 1. Hence, total casualties may be around the same but the KIA rate much higher.
Thus far Putin has done everything possible from recruiting Africans and a few Arabs to begging for North Koreans to keep from touching the Rus. History tells us that even a cowed subject people will tolerate this sort of brutal treatment only so long. Putin needs a negotiated settlement soon - as does Ukraine. I hope Trump has the strength, vision, and courage to force a reasonably favorable one that keeps Russian ambitions under the muddy rock where they belong. He holds the far stronger hand.
Just as Russia is now seen as the Paper Tiger they were. I think China is for a while longer in the same category. They have different strengths and weaknesses but are still not able to fully stand toe to toe with the US. Let alone the US, Japan, S.Korea and NATO.
IMHO the biggest mistake we could make is allowing them the time to gain on our lead.
If China starts a Naval blockade of Taiwan and we allow it. It will not only cripple the the world economy. (No chips for vehicles, appliances, communications, computers). Also, Taiwan imports most of their critical products.
If we allow a blockade, It gives away our best opportunity to delay the China naval buildup. China can still not match the U.S. dominance at sea. So a block aid on Tiawain would be the perfect time for the US, Japan and S Korea to put the Chinese Navy back a decade by sinking every ship they bring into the straits.
This may seem provocative and risk WW3. But IMHO knocking them back on their heels now instead of waiting until that are our equal in military dominance.
They will take what they want. They will not have the pause and concern we have about WW3. And we will then have sanctions and words while they have Africa, Taiwan, most likely parts of Russia also.
We would need to be extremely aggressive and strike immediately to show China the world won’t tolerate the take over of Taiwan and they will be set back decades. If we go to UN and use sanctions. We lose our narrowing strength over the next decade to China. And away we go with another Cold War.
