Politics

[Altitude sickness]

Germanistan? Who is the troll?

I think we are remarkably fortunate to have an international set of opinions on the topics that are discussed on this thread. For some, firmly walled into their confirmation bias information bubble, this is likely the only alternative world view they ever see.

Please be careful our German friend not to be arrested by the thought police currently running Germany

 

[HookMeUpII]

Correction to my post: Saudis and OPEC just announced they are INCREASING production. This just got a whole lot more complicated.

 

[Red Leg]

Correction to my post: Saudis and OPEC just announced they are INCREASING production. This just got a whole lot more complicated.

As you well know, "drill baby drill" only works above a certain price point for US crude.

 

[HookMeUpII]

As you well know, "drill baby drill" only works above a certain price point for US crude.

You're not wrong. From my desk, none of this helps the situation. We don't use hardly any of our own oil (topic for another day).

Long story short: One of the biggest metrics the Fed looks at is the price of oil, and subsequently, gas. Oil at $66 a barrel and gas at $2.70...that's a "deflationary" figure, for lack of a better term.

Jerome Powell is not what I would call the smartest human. Wouldn't want to be that guy right now, though. Where's Ben Bernanke when you need him.

 

[HookMeUpII]

The general opinion of Lutnick, by the way, is very low....from multiple news outlets both conservative and liberal.

 

[LivingTheDream]

As a moderate conservative, I honestly don't know really how I feel about the tariff situation. First and foremost, as a wealth manager, this is difficult to manage but we saw it coming. We knew this was the playbook 2.0. With that being said, we're coming off an artificially stimulated economy via bloated government hiring padded by a natural economic recovery post-pandemic (you can flip that to vice versa, as well).

I can't honestly say I'm onboard with this. Hopefully in 6 months I say "He was right." From where I'm sitting right now, this is not a good move, not at a good time.

I think the market is going to take a leg down for at least a quarter more. Sucks but that's life.

I think real estate is in for a big correction. My prediction is rates will go down AND inventory will remain the same (slim). The market is 2007-esque without the underlying policy flaws. You'll see a 10-15% retreat in values within the next 6 months.

Fed better get out their pen and write in another one, if not two more rate decreases on top of the two they have projected. We are at a real risk for stagflation at this point.

The dark horse, oil, is the only one I can't predict. The Saudi's did say they were cutting production and we're likely seeing further sanctions on Russia with worsening political conditions in the Middle East. But, we've been playing this game for the last 5 years. Summer, travel season, in the northern hemisphere is coming.

If we see oil pop to $90-$100 a barrel? Fed will be sharpening their pencils.

I agree with this 100% and don't think I could have said it better.

We already seeing prices in real estate drop, good locations are still hot, but those just outside the circle of good locations which were over inflated due to low inventory are getting crushed. I have already seen a 10% to 15% reduction in these areas and they aren't moving well. They are sitting on the market longer too.

Oil I think is going up, in talking with smaller oil companies, they told me they don't expect oil to stay in the 60s and that it will be high if not much higher in the coming months.

With the market P/E were/are way too high based on historical averages, so either earnings need to come up (not sure how that happens in the current environment in the short term) or prices need to come down.

Going to be bumpy, but think we will have a stronger foundation going forward.

 

[mdwest]

I dont think the opinon of any media outlet, whether right or left leaning, has any value at all when it comes to Lutnick..

consider what his peers and his adversaries have all said about him for decades.. Hes without a doubt a top 1% type in the field of private equity, investment banking, and finance.. he's an absolute velociraptor at the negotiations table that almost without exception "wins"..

the people that oppose him (Doug Ford is the most recent example) walk away complimenting him for his intelligence, out of the box thinking, and ability to forge a path to a "deal"..

If Racheal Maddow and Tucker Carlson hate him equally, and buffons like Jim Cramer say he sucks.. that makes me all the more confident in his abilities..

 

[mark-hunter]

I think we are remarkably fortunate to have an international set of opinions on the topics that are discussed on this thread. For some, firmly walled into their confirmation bias information bubble, this is likely the only alternative world view they ever see.

Very valid point. However, there is entire world of YT podcasts with number of analysts very much active.
What actually surprised me is that all those have been efficiently removed from main media outlets globally, and in last few years, with very few exemptions.
The levers of powers and actual influence that can do that was surprising to me.

For me, being from small European country, having only a vague idea of American internal politics, this thread gives me great insight on topics and views important to American public and daily politics.

 

[HookMeUpII]

If Racheal Maddow and Tucker Carlson hate him equally, and buffons like Jim Cramer say he sucks.. that makes me all the more confident in his abilities..

Look at Lutnick's comments. Not a great message. I'm super slammed today but when I can I'll post some.

 

[HookMeUpII]

I agree with this 100% and don't think I could have said it better.

We already seeing prices in real estate drop, good locations are still hot, but those just outside the circle of good locations which were over inflated due to low inventory are getting crushed. I have already seen a 10% to 15% reduction in these areas and they aren't moving well. They are sitting on the market longer too.

Oil I think is going up, in talking with smaller oil companies, they told me they don't expect oil to stay in the 60s and that it will be high if not much higher in the coming months.

With the market P/E were/are way too high based on historical averages, so either earnings need to come up (not sure how that happens in the current environment in the short term) or prices need to come down.

Going to be bumpy, but think we will have a stronger foundation going forward.

The divergence of views from those in their respective industries is remarkable.

I am a wealth manager who's life gets easier or harder, directly correlated to the stock market. I told our clients, when he got elected, just remember...this was his playbook before. I voted for him and was happy he won, don't get me wrong. But I saw this coming. We positioned as best we could. We knew, at some point, the correction/drop was coming.

This is what gets me scratching my head.

One of my best friends is a real estate agent/broker. He is mine as well. His good friend, an acquaintance of mine, is a mortgage broker. Both are vehemently swearing to me up and down this real estate market (bubble) is going to continue, in what they make seem like, perpetuity. To me that is delusional. There is no way, this can continue.

Like you said, in certain areas the cracks are beginning to appear. Florida, off the water and higher up in the market. North Carolina, Texas, etc. Where I live in northern NJ, it's still too hot. We are already seeing things cool in the central part of the state. I'm seeing the same thing as you in these areas. Homes that were listed at $1mm, 2500 sq ft average, are now around $800k-$900k and some even lower.

 

[steve white]

So here are the lists of the "unfair" trade war tariffs
View attachment 676269
View attachment 676270
View attachment 676271
View attachment 676272

I guess we are still working on Canada's rate......Remember he posed for this picture with the 17yo girl, and resigned in the middle of the semester rather than face the investigation.
View attachment 676275

The pages don't open...

 

[gbflyer]

Easily said. Do you run a business? Do you run a publicly traded company? If you do, how would you react to someone suggesting you forego your profit margin for a year - two years - five years. A couple of data points to consider is that Ford had a profit margin of 3.8% last year and GM of 3.3%. That means the other 96.2% and 96.7% went, one way or another, into the cost of that car that you believe is way to expensive. How would the typical small business survive without a profit margin - or even one that small? How much do you suggest they cut? Where?

Another small data point. Ford was trading at 10.15 a share today and is down nearly 2% after close. GM was at 47.9 this afternoon is down almost 4% after close. How much of all that margin can they cut without a collapse?

Yes, but probably not to your level of success and experience. 5 generations worth and no bankruptcy yet however. Like the saying goes, I can run anyone’s business but mine. When times get tough we roll up our sleeves and get to work.

Thanks for the numbers. We’ve had years when 3% would be huge. I’m sure that they will survive, if not the taxpayer will bail them out again and the flight departments, NASCAR deals, venues, etc., will all flourish.

 

[HookMeUpII]

Yes, but probably not to your level of success and experience. 5 generations worth and no bankruptcy yet however. Like the saying goes, I can run anyone’s business but mine. When times get tough we roll up our sleeves and get to work.

Thanks for the numbers. We’ve had years when 3% would be huge. I’m sure that they will survive, if not the taxpayer will bail them out again and the flight departments, NASCAR deals, venues, etc., will all flourish.

I run a business as well, directly correlated to the stock market, which is directly correlated to basically, everything in the economy.

There is a "bell curve" when it comes to political/legislative risk as it pertains to running a business dealing in international goods and commerce.

Rest assured, you'd be hard-pressed to put this anywhere other than the FAR end of the bell curve in terms of unlikely and severe scenarios.

 

[steve white]

True... but honestly we would have been in a recession years ago if not for military exports artificially propping up our GDP, so the economy has been artificially touted as successful for years.

So if we are going to go through a recession I would at least like for some good to come out of it by means of reshaping our trade deals - as wheels said.....




I'm willing to take the short term loss if it means bringing American jobs back, I've been through 911, sub prime crash and covid...... I say peel off the bandaid now and get it over with.

And maybe, just maybe you can buy those goods from an American company that makes them in the USA instead of buying from a German company who exports out of China.

I remember a short man with big ears from Fort Worth Texas named Ross Perot who said the following when I was in the 2nd grade.......

And he was right

He was right, and then the rat t#rd dropped out, guaranteeing Clinton the win....grrrr.

 

[steve white]

Perhaps you should practice what you preach, sexual misconduct goes back as far as Grover Cleveland. Not counting Jefferson slave/mistress.

Slave had a "Jefferson" baby--but NOT Thomas Jefferson's. His uncle had here for two years while he was a widower. The new wife insisted she be sent back to Thomas Jefferson since it was known the uncle had dalliance. That is how the baby was conceived. The whole accusation against Jefferson was started by a ne'er do well whom Jefferson had turned down for the post of Postmaster General.
Liberals love to repeat the false version of the ne'er do well.

 

[HookMeUpII]

"So what if we have a tariff-induced recession?"
"Everyone needs to buy Tesla stock!"

 

[mdwest]

Look at Lutnick's comments. Not a great message. I'm super slammed today but when I can I'll post some.

This is an interview this morning. I don’t have a problem with his comments.

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

Slave had a "Jefferson" baby--but NOT Thomas Jefferson's. His uncle had here for two years while he was a widower. The new wife insisted she be sent back to Thomas Jefferson since it was known the uncle had dalliance. That is how the baby was conceived. The whole accusation against Jefferson was started by a ne'er do well whom Jefferson had turned down for the post of Postmaster General.
Liberals love to repeat the false version of the ne'er do well.

If you discredit that child that’s fine I’ve got no reason to doubt what you say is true. The encyclopedia Virginia credits him with a total of six children by his slave whom apparently was his wife’s half sister.

What Jefferson did or didn’t do with his slave is of little consequence to me the point I was making remains the same. It’s complete possible for Canada to have poor leadership and the president to be a boor at the same time. If you want to look through history you’ll find examples of poor character being shown on both sides of the boarder. John A McDonald was a functional alcoholic for example.

Thomas Jefferson and His Family - Encyclopedia Virginia

Early Family Origins and Life The Jefferson family migrated from England and likely had arrived in America by early in the seventeenth century; Jefferson’s great-grandfather was living in Virginia when he died in 1697. Although the Jeffersons were not among the elite landholding families of...

encyclopediavirginia.org

 

[LivingTheDream]

"So what if we have a tariff-induced recession?"
"Everyone needs to buy Tesla stock!"

View attachment 676347

For what it is worth the last administration changed the definition of a recession. I guessing Trump will say something similar.

"Many economist, Nobel winners, very smart people, say that this isn't a recession, there are numbers and then there are other numbers, and the other numbers say this isn't a recession"

See no recession.

 

[Doubleplay]

Hold on to your hats. Recession is here. Tariffs will do nothing to reduce the deficit but will increase the cost of living and recession will offset the benefits for the government receipts expected from the tariffs. Zero sum game which will hurt everyone.