It is interesting that thanks to a nonaligned Turkish based aggregator of materiel losses we have pretty good reading of those baseline losses on both sides. This link goes directly to the Russian totals. No system is listed without video or photographic evidence. Obviously, that makes the totals rather conservative. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1 As an example, according to Oryx and that visual evidence, Russia has lost 3750 tanks to date in the war. I know that DOD estimated Russia had roughly 3500 modernized T72 and T80 variants and a couple of dozen T90's at the start of the conflict. Those simply no longer exist. It is why the kills over the last year have been more and more often T-64's taken out of long term storage. They are death traps on a modern battlefield.
Oryx further notes total verified Russian losses of armored vehicles of all types, including tanks is 11,794. In both categories, note the number of captured platforms. Russia has actually been the largest supplier of armored vehicles to Ukrainian forces of any nation during the war. Again, those numbers significantly exceed the inventory of modernized Russian armored capability. It is why the internet is full in recent months of videos of Russians desperately trying to advance using ATVs and civilian vehicles.
Casualty estimates are all over the place. The Ukrainian MOD claims as of today that it has inflicted 858,390 casualties on Russian forces (KIA/WIA/MIA/and captured). This would include Wagner before its withdrawal, North Koreans, and conscripted troops from the occupied Donbass. The British MOD published an estimate 19 December 2024 that the Russian army had suffered as many as 750,000 total casualties to date.
US wounded to KIA ratios have ranged from 5 to 12 to one during the GWOT. Russia's field medical services are extremely primitive by Western military standards. By our estimate Russian WIA to KIA ratios are likely no better than three to one and perhaps as bad as two to one. Taking the British MOD figure that would result is somewhere between 275,000 and 375,000 KIA. That tracks pretty closely with Zelensky's estimate.
The US, on the other hand, has been very cautious on casualty estimates. On January 20 of last year, DOD estimated Russian casualties at "almost" 500,000. Combat over the last year as Russia has largely vainly tried to occupy new ground has been far more intensive than first two years. In November of last year alone both DOD and UK MOD estimated Russian total casualties in the 45K+ range. That is both staggering and unsustainable even for Russia unless it goes to nation-wide mobilization which Putin dares not do.
As I say, the US has enormous leverage at the negotiating table if it would just use it.
