Politics

[Red Leg]

It seems to me that is exactly what Rubio and Kellogg are doing and why they are meeting without Zelensky. The US and Russia look to establish a relationship for the first time in 80 years. Something Trump wanted to do eight years ago but was forced not to pursue due to Russia Gate.

Some of the points could be the US drops sanctions against Russia and normalizes the relationship allowing Russia back into the G8. The construction of the new NATO base in Romania stops and Ukraine will not join NATO. Russia has to offer a reasonable treaty to Ukraine and start pulling back from it's new relationship with China, further isolating China.

Zelensky and Ukraine are free to accept/negotiate the treaty or continue the war without US support and Europe is free to do what they want.

I don't know if this is what is happening but it seems the logical reason why Zelensky is not involved in the first round of talks. The second round of talks with America, Russia and Ukraine deals with a treaty.

Carrot or carrot negotiating tactics - novel.

 

[mdwest]

It seems to me that is exactly what Rubio and Kellogg are doing and why they are meeting without Zelensky. The US and Russia look to establish a relationship for the first time in 80 years. Something Trump wanted to do eight years ago but was forced not to pursue due to Russia Gate.

Some of the points could be the US drops sanctions against Russia and normalizes the relationship allowing Russia back into the G8. The construction of the new NATO base in Romania stops and Ukraine will not join NATO. Russia has to offer a reasonable treaty to Ukraine and start pulling back from it's new relationship with China, further isolating China.

Zelensky and Ukraine are free to accept/negotiate the treaty or continue the war without US support and Europe is free to do what they want.

I don't know if this is what is happening but it seems the logical reason why Zelensky is not involved in the first round of talks. The second round of talks with America, Russia and Ukraine deals with a treaty.

Perhaps this is more about the future of US/Russian relations as opposed to an actual Russia/Ukraine peace negotiation..

Russia/Ukraine obtaining peace might only be a small subset of the goals/objectives...

I know what Russia might like to obtain from the US (a few things are listed above.. less US military presence in Europe.. readmittance to the G8, etc.. etc..)...

What I cant figure out is what we want from the Russians in exchange.. "Peace" in Ukraine isn't nearly enough of a trade.. especially if the Russians get to dictate the terms and conditions of that "peace"..

 

[Rocked and Loaded]

Back to the discussion of free speech in Germany. If you can be arrested for tweeting that your politicians are a “Pimmel” or ugly, then your country does not truly have free speech. If Germany doesn’t allow its people to insult their leaders then they learned the wrong lessons from their history.

 

[Wheels]

What I cant figure out is what we want from the Russians in exchange.. "Peace" in Ukraine isn't nearly enough of a trade.. especially if the Russians get to dictate the terms and conditions of that "peace"..

IMO the key is isolating China and pulling Russia away from it's new found partnership. China seems to be Trump's biggest international concern.

 

[VertigoBE]

Your arrogance is not a surprise...

We wouldn't need to eliminate imported Canadian energy.... Just the speculation of the potential future of US energy independence drops prices... In fact, it already has in many instances...

You want to debate this topic? Bring it... I will be glad to tune up your knowledge of how energy markets actually work...

lol, I’m not sure even I would dare to go head to head with @WAB on energy topics. You’ll need to show some profound acumen.

I for one am ready to be schooled by you though.

 

[Lone Star Bluegrass]

Honest question: How does Zelensky not have enough popular support in Ukraine to feel confident about holding elections?

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

It seems to me that is exactly what Rubio and Kellogg are doing and why they are meeting without Zelensky. The US and Russia look to establish a relationship for the first time in 80 years. Something Trump wanted to do eight years ago but was forced not to pursue due to Russia Gate.

Some of the points could be the US drops sanctions against Russia and normalizes the relationship allowing Russia back into the G8. The construction of the new NATO base in Romania stops and Ukraine will not join NATO. Russia has to offer a reasonable treaty to Ukraine and start pulling back from it's new relationship with China, further isolating China.

Zelensky and Ukraine are free to accept/negotiate the treaty or continue the war without US support and Europe is free to do what they want.

I don't know if this is what is happening but it seems the logical reason why Zelensky is not involved in the first round of talks. The second round of talks with America, Russia and Ukraine deals with a treaty.

Russia is not the old USSR. Russia is a second or third tier country and that might be overly generous. Russia, Iran and North Korea are not our friends and anything the US can do to weaken or eliminate them from causing havoc on the world stage, should be the US government's priority. In doing so, it will also impact the behavior of China, as it reduces or eliminates the 3 trouble making puppets that China controls.

Think back to the cold war and the phrase "domino effect." Now just replace the names with the axis of evil countries.

 

[VertigoBE]

Well, it looks like my worst fears of a Trump presidency may be realized. We appear to be on the verge of forcing Zelensky out and installing a Russian puppet in Kiev. It is difficult to believe that we can be this naive.

Just playing devils advocate: the talks are about new elections to take place in Ukraine. Translating this into “the US is pushing out Zelensky” would mean either of two things: he has very little support for his actions/decisions from the general Ukrainian populace, OR you believe it true that the US is actively in the regime change business still. Both concepts are frightening for any democracy.

 

[mdwest]

lol, I’m not sure even I would dare to go head to head with @WAB on energy topics. You’ll need to show some profound acumen.

I for one am ready to be schooled by you though.

I sat on the board of directors for a small O&G exploration firm in Houston for a few years...

Even with that experience/exposure to the O&G industry, I wouldn't begin to remotely consider myself an expert, much less question anything WAG might offer about how the industry works (or doesn't)..

I sat on that board for 2 reasons.. my firm owned a sizeable chunk of the O&G companies stock/equity, and I wanted oversight and the ability to protect our fairly significant investment.. and I brought a good bit of executive leadership and corporate governance experience, where most of the leadership of that firm and the other members of the board were largely scientists, engineers, and O&G sales types..

I read A LOT of material related to O&G during my tenure.. saw a LOT of reports.. and interfaced with a lot of people that really understood how the industry works, why it works the way it does, etc..

But that by no means made me an expert in any way..

I don't think anyone that hasn't worked specifically in that field at a middle management and higher level for a very long time really understands it.. I don't care how much they might understand about micro or macro economics, business in general, etc.. or how much they might have studied/read about the industry...

Its simply far too complicated and way too massive to fully grasp any other way..

 

[WAB]

It seems to me that is exactly what Rubio and Kellogg are doing and why they are meeting without Zelensky. The US and Russia look to establish a relationship for the first time in 80 years. Something Trump wanted to do eight years ago but was forced not to pursue due to Russia Gate.

Some of the points could be the US drops sanctions against Russia and normalizes the relationship allowing Russia back into the G8. The construction of the new NATO base in Romania stops and Ukraine will not join NATO. Russia has to offer a reasonable treaty to Ukraine and start pulling back from it's new relationship with China, further isolating China.

Zelensky and Ukraine are free to accept/negotiate the treaty or continue the war without US support and Europe is free to do what they want.

I don't know if this is what is happening but it seems the logical reason why Zelensky is not involved in the first round of talks. The second round of talks with America, Russia and Ukraine deals with a treaty.

This is my read as well, and I believe a very naive approach by our government. To say that I am disappointed would be an understatement.

 

[mdwest]

Honest question: How does Zelensky not have enough popular support in Ukraine to feel confident about holding elections?

Not that I trust polls at all... but polling at different times in 2024 show he likely couldn't win another election..

While other polls show he is as popular as ever..


that said, I think something that needs to be noted is.. Zelensky didn't exactly "cancel" an election..

what he did was declare martial law (and did so legally, and in accordance with Ukraines law)..

and Ukraines law is pretty clear.. as long as the country is under martial law, they don't have presidential elections..

So.. to have an election, they would need to change the law, and allow elections to be held while martial law is in place..

Which is not something Ukranians appear to be interested in doing..

So, despite some trying to claim he is wrongfully holding onto power.. and while some people may not like that he still holds the office of the president after his 5 year term has expired.. the fact is he has done nothing wrong or illegal per Ukranian law.. and that at least in the last few reports that I have read, most Ukranians believe he should remain president until the country is released from martial law..

Can Ukraine's Zelenskyy stay in power without an election? – DW – 05/19/2024

Volodymyr Zelenskyy's term as president officially ends on May 20, and a scheduled election in March was postponed due to the ongoing war. Legal experts explain why he can remain in power.

www.dw.com

 

[Lone Star Bluegrass]

Russia is not the old USSR. Russia is a second or third tier country and that might be overly generous. Russia, Iran and North Korea are not our friends and anything the US can do to weaken or eliminate them from causing havoc on the world stage, should be the US government's priority. In doing so, it will also impact the behavior of China, as it reduces or eliminates the 3 trouble making puppets that China controls.

Think back to the cold war and the phrase "domino effect." Now just replace the names with the axis of evil countries.

View attachment 666351

Domino theory was a dubious at best theory 60 years ago and it hasn’t aged well.
Within three years of Saigon falling, the Vietnamese were in a shooting war with China.

 

[Heeler75]

This is my read as well, and I believe a very naive approach by our government. To say that I am disappointed would be an understatement.

Would you rather have Kamala in charge and just keep pumping US taxpayer money to Ukraine with no results?

 

[lwaters]

Honest question: How does Zelensky not have enough popular support in Ukraine to feel confident about holding elections?

Because all them dead Ukrainians and Russians probably don't own one acre of the land they died on. Most likely some rich oligarchs own most of it and probably have bone spurs

 

[Rocked and Loaded]

Honest question: How does Zelensky not have enough popular support in Ukraine to feel confident about holding elections?

Would Russia insist that votes from occupied eastern Ukraine be counted? That could be a factor.

 

[Mekaniks]

Honest question: How does Zelensky not have enough popular support in Ukraine to feel confident about holding elections?

Because Ukraine is currently significantly occupied by Russians….

Return the Russians to Russia and reinstate border as it was prior to the invasion….

Then let the Ukrainians that have been fighting to maintain their independence hold an election….

 

[gbflyer]

 

[Tbitty]

View attachment 666362

 

[wesheltonj]

Eagle Ford is sour. EOG ship and sells it in Louisiana. More wells can be drilled there.

 

[Red Leg]

Honest question: How does Zelensky not have enough popular support in Ukraine to feel confident about holding elections?

Something like this, even the Civil War, has never occurred in this country.

So, let's put it in comparative terms. Imagine the United States under the same conditions. China has invaded the West Coast. We are engaged in a peer to peer ground war. China occupies 20% of the country and we are suffering roughly 4,000 - 5,000 casualties a day (proportional losses against our population vs Ukraine). Every major population center is under periodic conventional bombardment resulting in a couple of thousand civilian deaths a week. Power and water only work periodically across large swaths of the country. Two thirds of the population of California, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, and Nevada are refugees scattered through the remainder of the country. Our adversary has a population three times the size of ours to draw upon. It would impossible to hold an election in such conditions. We too, should we have the will and courage to continue to fight like the Ukrainians have, would be under martial law for the duration.

It is why I despise people like Tucker Carlson et al who condemn Zelynsky for not holding an election. Either they are ignorant, or for political reasons, they assume we are.