Politics

[Tubby’s Canteen]

@Wyatt Smith when do farmers local to you start to source their fertilizer for the season.

 

[Brent in Az]

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

Ford is all blow and no go… this is no different than his threat to shut US govt contractor out of Ontario… which would cost +/- 10,000 Canadians their jobs…

If the US consumes that much potash from Canada… WABs point is right on target..

Potash is a low value, high volume product… it currently trades at about $318 per metric ton.

So you’re not putting it on a container ship and sending it anywhere else… the cost of getting it where you want it to go would increase the price outside of anything close to its market value..

Either you use it yourself (Canada can’t absorb that much of its own potash) or you sell it to your neighbor… or you shut down the mine and once again, Canadians are out of jobs…

This threat is just about as dumb as Freelands statement about needing UK nuke to protect Canada from US aggression…

Just extreme leftist politicians pandering to the ill advised and unaware population…

I don’t think your right on this one, the financial damage that could be done to the us economy would far out way the Canadian government carrying the cost of the mining operations for a short time. At worst your looking at two months before it would interrupt planting. It Likely wouldn’t impact all that many Canadian jobs relatively speaking a quick search turns up 11 Canadian potash mines.

Edit-Also unlike freeland who is a liberal and unlikely to win the leadership race Sunday ford is a conservative and leader of a provincial party in power.

 

[Wyatt Smith]

@Wyatt Smith when do farmers local to you start to source their fertilizer for the season.

A lot gets put on in the fall after the crops come out. When the weather permits it guys will spread in the winter, and finish in the spring.
Anhydrous Ammonia (Nitrogen) is a lot pickier about when it’s applied. It needs to be cool enough for it to seal, but warm enough the ground is not frozen. 50-60f is ideal.
A lot farmers pre pay, or contract everything from fertilizer to chemicals to diesel fuel and have it delivered whenever needed. Others of course have to buy on credit and pay after harvest.

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

A lot gets put on in the fall after the crops come out. When the weather permits it guys will spread in the winter, and finish in the spring.
Anhydrous Ammonia (Nitrogen) is a lot pickier about when it’s applied. It needs to be cool enough for it to seal, but warm enough the ground is not frozen. 50-60f is ideal.
A lot farmers pre pay, or contract everything from fertilizer to chemicals to diesel fuel and have it delivered whenever needed. Others of course have to buy on credit and pay after harvest.

What would be the latest you guys could plant and still get a mature crop before frost becomes an issue?

 

[mdwest]

Ok… let’s assume you’re correct…

Let’s go back to earlier points made last week…

The US economy is both larger and more dynamic. US unemployment is lower. The US dollar is stronger. And Canada exports to the US underpin a huge segment of the Canadian economy… US exports to Canada have a much lessor degree of underpinning on the US economy..

So when the US responds in kind with a donkey punch of its own (you know at this point Trump will).. who do we think suffers worse and who do we think takes longer to recover?

This all comes down to what’s already been said.. Canadian politicians are scrambling for sound bites because there’s an election in a few weeks..

The far better thing to do than dancing around shouting rhetoric at a news camera would be to get to the negotiating table… Canada has far more to lose, and the recovery period will take longer..

But.. no one is actually in charge in Canada at this point.. Trudeau is too busy crying on camera and knows he’s on his way out the door in a matter of weeks.. and who is going to replace him at this point is undecided..

Hopefully once Trudeau’s replacement is named someone sensible will come to the table to talk and some (maybe most?) will be behind us..

Until then it’s just meaningless bloviation..

Trump isn’t the slightest bit interested in negotiating with a provincial governor…

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

Ok… let’s assume you’re correct…

Let’s go back to earlier points made last week…

The US economy is both larger and more dynamic. US unemployment is lower. The US dollar is stronger. And Canada exports to the US underpin a huge segment of the Canadian economy… US exports to Canada have a much lessor degree of underpinning on the US economy..

So when the US responds in kind with a donkey punch of its own (you know at this point Trump will).. who do we think suffers worse and who do we think takes longer to recover?

This all comes down to what’s already been said.. Canadian politicians are scrambling for sound bites because there’s an election in a few weeks..

The far better thing to do than dancing around shouting rhetoric at a news camera would be to get to the negotiating table… Canada has far more to lose, and the recovery period will take longer..

But.. no one is actually in charge in Canada at this point.. Trudeau is too busy crying on camera and knows he’s on his way out the door in a matter of weeks.. and who is going to replace him at this point is undecided..

Hopefully once Trudeau’s replacement is named someone sensible will come to the table to talk and some (maybe most?) will be behind us..

Until then it’s just meaningless bloviation..

Trump isn’t the slightest bit interested in negotiating with a provincial governor…

There still won’t be anyone to the negotiating table. creditable sources say either the liberals will call a federal election or be forced into it from a non confidence vote. The liberals only hold a minority government and require the ndp to prop them up.

 

[mdwest]

There still won’t be anyone to the negotiating table. creditable sources say either the liberals will call a federal election or be forced into it from a non confidence vote. The liberals only hold a minority government and require the ndp to prop them up.

On a completely separate note, that sounds like a pretty scary proposition to me (although I admit I don’t fully understand the Canadian system),,,

How long will it take parliament to shore things up and form a government?

Days? Or weeks? Or months?

And how does Canada function in the interim while it waits on a government to form? For example, what if a major issue came with no notice? A stock market crash, or terrorist attack, etc… how does the country govern without a Prime Minister in place or a government formed?

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

Parliamentary system seems like a pain

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

Ok… let’s assume you’re correct…

Let’s go back to earlier points made last week…

The US economy is both larger and more dynamic. US unemployment is lower. The US dollar is stronger. And Canada exports to the US underpin a huge segment of the Canadian economy… US exports to Canada have a much lessor degree of underpinning on the US economy..

So when the US responds in kind with a donkey punch of its own (you know at this point Trump will).. who do we think suffers worse and who do we think takes longer to recover?

This all comes down to what’s already been said.. Canadian politicians are scrambling for sound bites because there’s an election in a few weeks..

The far better thing to do than dancing around shouting rhetoric at a news camera would be to get to the negotiating table… Canada has far more to lose, and the recovery period will take longer..

But.. no one is actually in charge in Canada at this point.. Trudeau is too busy crying on camera and knows he’s on his way out the door in a matter of weeks.. and who is going to replace him at this point is undecided..

Hopefully once Trudeau’s replacement is named someone sensible will come to the table to talk and some (maybe most?) will be behind us..

Until then it’s just meaningless bloviation..

Trump isn’t the slightest bit interested in negotiating with a provincial governor…

Your absolutely correct about the size of the economies and the time it will take to recover what I don’t think you have a feel for is the sentiment in Canada at the moment. Canadians feel stabbed in the back by the U.S. and trump is doing nothing to not make it personal. Canadian snowbirds on a watch list really? I don’t think you appreciate how far Canadian opinion has swayed for us to be discussing what would amount to economic terrorism. Sometimes you swing anyway knowing a beating is inevitable.

 

[Wyatt Smith]

What would be the latest you guys could plant and still get a mature crop before frost becomes an issue?

It’s a steady decline after say the 20th of April or so. But we can plant soybeans up to about July 10th and still get 15-25 bushes per acre. Normally this is done after harvesting wheat.
April and May planted beans will probably be 60-80 bushels an acre.
Corn is best planted in April or May as well but you can’t still get satisfactory results in June if you plant shorter maturing seed. It won’t yield quite as however.

 

[Wyatt Smith]

Every person on earth buys fertilizer whether they know it or not.

 

[mdwest]

Your absolutely correct about the size of the economies and the time it will take to recover what I don’t think you have a feel for is the sentiment in Canada at the moment. Canadians feel stabbed in the back by the U.S. and trump is doing nothing to not make it personal. Canadian snowbirds on a watch list really? I don’t think you appreciate how far Canadian opinion has swayed for us to be discussing what would amount to economic terrorism. Sometimes you swing anyway knowing a beating is inevitable.

I actually think I do…

You’re a really good example (sincerely).. from your online persona, the best I can tell youve been pretty pro-American historically , you appear to be both fiscally and socially conservative, etc… and it’s very obvious Trumps actions have gotten you on fairly high alert… I can only imagine what liberal city dwelling Canadians in Montreal and Toronto are feeling right now..

What I think Canadians, Europeans, and Mexicans are failing to understand is… similar sentiment has been brewing here for years… at the epicenter of the whole MAGA movement is a fundamental belief that the US has been footing the rest of the worlds bills for way too long.. and that the rest of the world has essentially been unappreciative of it and has become entitled.. so they’re ready to tell everyone else to pound sand.. (there are other beliefs outside of isolationism.. but isolationism is certainly a big one)

It really doesn’t matter if that’s wrong or right.. it is the public perception of many (several of whom frequent AH)… and until that perception is changed, nothing is going to improve..

Ford saber rattling doesn’t scare anyone..

What it does is further invigorate and validate in the minds of the far right that these are the correct actions to take… they are more than willing to dig in and weather the storm.. if it hurts a bit, they genuinely don’t care… they believe its worth it ..

All that said.. Americans are a finicky lot.. and we have the attention span of a 6 month old beagle most of the time.. so… I’d guess in 3 years and 10 months there will be a completely different focus..

But for the time being… this is where things sit..

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

On a completely separate note, that sounds like a pretty scary proposition to me (although I admit I don’t fully understand the Canadian system),,,

How long will it take parliament to shore things up and form a government?

Days? Or weeks? Or months?

And how does Canada function in the interim while it waits on a government to form? For example, what if a major issue came with no notice? A stock market crash, or terrorist attack, etc… how does the country govern without a Prime Minister in place or a government formed?

If and when the government falls it forces a federal election and i believe the shortest that can be is 37 days . A prime minister and government go hand and hand prime minister is the leader of the party in power.

In the event of emergency I believe that an election can be suspended and parliament reconvenes with the previously held seats for the duration of the incident. I would have to verify that you’d be close to marshal law at that point and I don’t know just where the cross over would be.

 

[steve white]

Ok… let’s assume you’re correct…

Let’s go back to earlier points made last week…

The US economy is both larger and more dynamic. US unemployment is lower. The US dollar is stronger. And Canada exports to the US underpin a huge segment of the Canadian economy… US exports to Canada have a much lessor degree of underpinning on the US economy..

So when the US responds in kind with a donkey punch of its own (you know at this point Trump will).. who do we think suffers worse and who do we think takes longer to recover?

This all comes down to what’s already been said.. Canadian politicians are scrambling for sound bites because there’s an election in a few weeks..

The far better thing to do than dancing around shouting rhetoric at a news camera would be to get to the negotiating table… Canada has far more to lose, and the recovery period will take longer..

But.. no one is actually in charge in Canada at this point.. Trudeau is too busy crying on camera and knows he’s on his way out the door in a matter of weeks.. and who is going to replace him at this point is undecided..

Hopefully once Trudeau’s replacement is named someone sensible will come to the table to talk and some (maybe most?) will be behind us..

Until then it’s just meaningless bloviation..

Trump isn’t the slightest bit interested in negotiating with a provincial governor…

Then why tariff or provoke Canada until after their election provides a conservative winner. Then we could all win, especially given no one in effectively in charge to negotiate or accept terms? May have been a bit premature. OTOH, we are on a mission with a 2 yr window. It is unfortunate, but we must insist that other foreign partners act as quickly as we must.

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

I actually think I do…

You’re a really good example (sincerely).. from your online persona, the best I can tell youve been pretty pro-American historically , you appear to be both fiscally and socially conservative, etc… and it’s very obvious Trumps actions have gotten you on fairly high alert… I can only imagine what liberal city dwelling Canadians in Montreal and Toronto are feeling right now..

What I think Canadians, Europeans, and Mexicans are failing to understand is… similar sentiment has been brewing here for years… at the epicenter of the whole MAGA movement is a fundamental belief that the US has been footing the rest of the worlds bills for way too long.. and that the rest of the world has essentially been unappreciative of it and has become entitled.. so they’re ready to tell everyone else to pound sand.. (there are other beliefs outside of isolationism.. but isolationism is certainly a big one)

It really doesn’t matter if that’s wrong or right.. it is the public perception of many (several of whom frequent AH)… and until that perception is changed, nothing is going to improve..

Ford saber rattling doesn’t scare anyone..

What it does is further invigorate and validate in the minds of the far right that these are the correct actions to take… they are more than willing to dig in and weather the storm.. if it hurts a bit, they genuinely don’t care… they believe its worth it ..

All that said.. Americans are a finicky lot.. and we have the attention span of a 6 month old beagle most of the time.. so… I’d guess in 3 years and 10 months there will be a completely different focus..

But for the time being… this is where things sit..

I think Canadians are of a longer minded on this. I foresee a shift away from Canadian dependency on U.S. markets in the future. 60 precent of Quebecers voted in favour of an energy east pipeline in a recent pole. Quebec has been anti pipeline for as long as I can remember. Likewise most other industries are exploring markets we’ve never bothered to exploit before. In the long term I see the U.S. coming out this as a trading partner to Canada instead of thee trading partner for Canada.

Regardless of the short term outcome trump has done irreversible damage to the Canadian/u.s. relationship.

 

[steve white]

Every person on earth buys fertilizer whether they know it or not.

But the politicians are the ones dumping verbal loads of it, majority bovine.

 

[mdwest]

Then why tariff or provoke Canada until after their election provides a conservative winner. Then we could all win, especially given no one in effectively in charge to negotiate or accept terms? May have been a bit premature. OTOH, we are on a mission with a 2 yr window. It is unfortunate, but we must insist that other foreign partners act as quickly as we must.

@Tubby’s Canteen has made that point.. and I agree…

But I’m not the leader of the free world… so not my shot to call…

Were I king for a day, my approach would have been to tell Canada something to the effect of “the moment you have a government in place, we’re going to start talking tariffs, and other economic actions… please choose your leadership wisely”… and then left it alone..

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

Then why tariff or provoke Canada until after their election provides a conservative winner. Then we could all win, especially given no one in effectively in charge to negotiate or accept terms? May have been a bit premature. OTOH, we are on a mission with a 2 yr window. It is unfortunate, but we must insist that other foreign partners act as quickly as we must.

That is the part which is most infuriating if trump had simply waited until 2026 we’d of had a conservative government in a strong majority who could of actually negotiated a lasting trade deal.

 

[mdwest]

I think Canadians are of a longer minded on this. I foresee a shift away from Canadian dependency on U.S. markets in the future. 60 precent of Quebecers voted in favour of an energy east pipeline in a recent pole. Quebec has been anti pipeline for as long as I can remember. Likewise most other industries are exploring markets we’ve never bothered to exploit before. In the long term I see the U.S. coming out this as a trading partner to Canada instead of thee trading partner for Canada.

Regardless of the short term outcome trump has done irreversible damage to the Canadian/u.s. relationship.

I don’t disagree at all…

That said, with canadas economy size and population size, that is a very long road to recovery..

I remain hopeful that sooner or later cooler heads will prevail and this will all get resolved..

50 years ago we still hated the Japanese… today everyone’s pretty much forgiven Pearl Harbor and moved on..

Let’s hope that the US and Canada figuring out how to be friends again doesn’t take quite as much time as it took us with the Japanese..