Politics

[Red Leg]

The citizens think they're getting a deal, while the banks and car companies are licking their lips.

I suspect Detroit, Tokyo, and Berlin are actually terrified.

 

[mdwest]

Im going to wager a bet that some of the threatened tariffs arent going to go into effect at all...

Im guessing that there are some last minute negotiations happening right now hoping to either drop some of whats been tabled or to buy another 30-60 day pause before things go into full effect... Trump isn't speaking to the tariffs until 4PM Eastern time today.. there is a reason for that..

As we've all recognized before, the US, depending on who you listen to and what you believe has varying degrees of difficulty that it will face as a result.. but Canada, MX, China, the EU, etc all are in a far worse position.. whatever the US suffers the other side suffers more.. we are the huge consumers in all of these equations.. if prices go up, Americans consume less foreign goods (and likely less US goods as well) and no one really wants that..

while it would be politician ruin for the Republicans in 18 months at the mid terms, it would be economic ruin for most of the other countries involved in the same time period that would take decades to recover from..

Some tariffs will go into effect and then be negotiated out of within the next 30-90 days.. Canada has an election in less than 4 weeks.. once a new leader is formally established decisions will get made and actions will start taking place fairly quickly.. Trump is already talking to Carne and I would imagine either he or a senior member of his staff is also talking to Poilievre..

Mexico has already been negotiating hard and some concessions have already been made..

The EU appears to be the only real hold out.. and that's to be expected.. Negotiations take place with individual countries in Europe, but those countries then are having to go back and negotiate with the EU on many things.. getting to a "deal" in many European countries is going to be much more complex than getting to a "deal" with CA, MX, China, etc..

 

[deewayne2003]

I suspect Detroit, Tokyo, and Berlin are actually terrified.

I think Berlin definitely is.... Tokyo not so much, the USA already tariffs pickup trucks higher than any other vehicle as retaliation for chickens - as posted previously.

Mercedes has one USA facility in Tuscaloosa Alabama and is the first Mercedes passenger car production facility outside Germany.

Detroit is probably trying to figure out how to bring manufacturing facilities back from Mexico which just assembles parts they bring in from China to circumvent tariffs.....

Toyota in typical Japanese long term strategy has been building Toyota trucks outside San Antonio for years and has diversified production in the USA and has joint ventures with Mazda.

Toyota USA facilities.

• Alabama (TMMAL): Assembles engines.
  
  
• Indiana (TMMI): Assembles vehicles.
  
  
• Kentucky (TMMK): Assembles vehicles.
  
  
• • Mississippi (TMMMS): Assembles vehicles, including the Toyota Corolla.
    
  • Missouri (TMMMO): Assembles vehicles.
    
  • Tennessee (TMMTN): Builds engine blocks and transmission cases.
    
  • Texas (TMMTX): Assembles vehicles.
    
  • West Virginia (TMMWV): Assembles engines and transmissions.
    

• • Toyota Auto Body California (TABC):
    
  • Toyota Battery Manufacturing North Carolina (TBMNC):
    
  • Mazda Toyota Manufacturing (MTM):
    

Specific Plant Details:

• • TMMMS (Blue Springs, Mississippi): Assembles the Toyota Corolla.
    
  • TMMWV (Buffalo, West Virginia): Toyota's only combined engine and transmission plant in North America.
    
  • TMMTN (Jackson, Tennessee): Builds engine blocks for cars, SUVs, and trucks.
    
  • TMMTX (San Antonio, Texas): Assembles the Toyota Tundra.
    
  • TMMAL (Huntsville, Alabama): Assembles engines for Tacoma and Tundra trucks and Sequoia SUVs, as well as 4-cylinder engines for Camry, RAV4, Sienna and Highlander.
    
  • TMMI (Princeton, Indiana): Assembles vehicles.
    
  • TMMK (Georgetown, Kentucky): Assembles vehicles.
    
  • TMMMO (Troy, Missouri): Assembles vehicles.
    
  • TBMNC (Liberty, North Carolina): Toyota's new battery plant, expected to be operational in 2025.
    
  • TABC (Long Beach, California): Toyota's first plant in North America.
    
  • Mazda Toyota Manufacturing (MTM): Joint venture with Mazda in Alabama.

 

[Wheels]

Let me offer an example that may hit close to some on the forum.

Tariffs ripple through domestic manufacturing. Let's take my Ford F-250. The U.S. auto industry leans heavily on imported parts, and slapping tariffs on those inputs will increase costs quickly. Moreover, those costs can not be addressed quickly because of the extensive worldwide supply chain supporting that manufacturing process.

The Center for Automotive Research, pegs foreign content in U.S.-made vehicles at 20-40% on average, depending on the model. A heavy-duty like the F-250, built in Kentucky or Ohio, is about 30% — steel from Canada, electronics from Mexico, and specialty components from Asia. Trump’s 25% tariff on autos and parts, set for April 2025, plus the broader 10-20% universal tariffs, will directly impact those components. I can testify from personal experience, no manufacturer, including Ford is not swapping out that global supply chain overnight; it’s a years-long retooling process, if it happens at all. There is already a lot of grumbling among both management and workers in swing state land about a potential reduction in demand regardless of a long term onshoring strategy,

Cost-wise, it isn't pretty for the consumer. If 30% of my F-250 content is hit with a 25% tariff, that’s a 7.5% bump on the sticker price before factoring in retaliation or supply disruptions. A $60,000 truck could jump to $64,500 - the increase I noted in my previous post. Add in steel tariffs (Canada’s a big supplier), and it’s more. Automobile manufacturers are already running fairly tight margins due to domestic competition. They have little room to eat anything so prices will go up - probably quickly. It took decades to create competitive supply chains - recreating them won't happen overnight.

I think this reality undercuts either tariff goals. Revenue? Higher costs tank demand, shrinking import volumes and tariff revenue. Trade rebalancing? Domestic production suffers too, not just foreign rivals. And by the way, Toyota’s U.S. plants use imported parts—same problem. Consumers will feel it either way. Assuming the real strategic play is to force manufacturing back - that could work eventually, but any meaningful lag means U.S. goods could be a lot higher fall of next year.

From what Trump and Bessent have said, the goal is to have those parts ultimately made in America. Evidently companies and countries have committed around $3T of investment so far. Will it work. Only time will tell.

When you live in your house and decide to remodel, there is the transition period that isn't necessarily fun.

 

[Altitude sickness]

The final tweaking is going on right now. Then announced in a few hours.

and I would guess it’s gonna be touted that as long as there is a solid commitment that Company will be off the hook.

As Mdwest says. Many companies are haggling right now to get off the list.

 

[Aaron N]

I suspect Detroit, Tokyo, and Berlin are actually terrified.

In reference to tariff’s? I think that the automakers and finance companies realize that the average consumer isn’t all that smart, and will add another year to the finance terms to keep the monthly payments the same as pre-tariff finance plans and people will happily sign. Especially with tax deductible interest.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

Putin calls up 160,000 men to Russian army in latest conscription drive, at crucial moment in Ukraine war​

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/02/europe/putin-russia-spring-conscription-ukraine-intl/index.html

 

[Tundra Tiger]

Putin calls up 160,000 men to Russian army in latest conscription drive, at crucial moment in Ukraine war​

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/02/europe/putin-russia-spring-conscription-ukraine-intl/index.html

"Russia is ready to negotiate in good faith" would have been an outstanding headline... yesterday.

 

[Royal27]

From what Trump and Bessent have said, the goal is to have those parts ultimately made in America. Evidently companies and countries have committed around $3T of investment so far. Will it work. Only time will tell.

When you live in your house and decide to remodel, there is the transition period that isn't necessarily fun.

This -

The assumption can't be made that 100% of tariffs will simply be passed along to the consumer. That is one potential outcome, but not the only potential outcome.

I can 100% assure you that companies are NOT simply telling their suppliers that the will just accept the tariffs. They are all pushing back HARD to not do so, including looking at moving production to the U.S. or a countries like Vietnam/India who appear ready to play ball and take advantage of the opportunity.

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

Im going to wager a bet that some of the threatened tariffs arent going to go into effect at all...

Im guessing that there are some last minute negotiations happening right now hoping to either drop some of whats been tabled or to buy another 30-60 day pause before things go into full effect... Trump isn't speaking to the tariffs until 4PM Eastern time today.. there is a reason for that..

As we've all recognized before, the US, depending on who you listen to and what you believe has varying degrees of difficulty that it will face as a result.. but Canada, MX, China, the EU, etc all are in a far worse position.. whatever the US suffers the other side suffers more.. we are the huge consumers in all of these equations.. if prices go up, Americans consume less foreign goods (and likely less US goods as well) and no one really wants that..

while it would be politician ruin for the Republicans in 18 months at the mid terms, it would be economic ruin for most of the other countries involved in the same time period that would take decades to recover from..

Some tariffs will go into effect and then be negotiated out of within the next 30-90 days.. Canada has an election in less than 4 weeks.. once a new leader is formally established decisions will get made and actions will start taking place fairly quickly.. Trump is already talking to Carne and I would imagine either he or a senior member of his staff is also talking to Poilievre..

Mexico has already been negotiating hard and some concessions have already been made..

The EU appears to be the only real hold out.. and that's to be expected.. Negotiations take place with individual countries in Europe, but those countries then are having to go back and negotiate with the EU on many things.. getting to a "deal" in many European countries is going to be much more complex than getting to a "deal" with CA, MX, China, etc..

I think your wrong on Canada every leader with a chance of taking the election is talking hard ball and carney who is (unfortunately) ahead in the polls is looking to form a joint trade coalition with the E.U. I don’t see a quick resolution to Canada U.S. trade and I don’t see a long term solution where the U.S. gets the lions share of Canadian oil without buying it off the open market.

The anti American sentiment is going to carry this election and any leader that turns around and makes any amount of trade concessions is going to get crucified. The average Canadian voter is about one step away from burning flags in their displeasure at the U.S.

 

[mdwest]

We'll have to see how it all works out..

I think Carney would be committing economic suicide... I adhere to Kevin O'leary's point of view..

Whether Canada likes it or not, 75% of all of its international trade is with the US and has been more for than 100 years. 17 states in particular do the overwhelming majority of that trade.

The EU doesn't have the economic ability (or desire) to pick up that 75%.. There is very little that Canada isn't exporting to the US that the EU doesn't already have suppliers for.. and most of those suppliers are other EU countries..

Canada's three largest exports are energy (crude oil and petroleum gas), motor vehicles and parts (largely for US make/model vehicles), and metal ores and minerals..

EU doesn't have the correct refineries to work with Canadian crude.. so the EU isn't an option there.. there is a very small appetite for American make/model vehicles in Europe.. so most of those items arent going to the EU.. and Europe is for the most part dealing with each other for the primary ores that Canada exports to the US, not to mention some of the ores, like potashe doesn't have enough value per metric ton to make it worth shipping the great distance to Europe (you can move it by train or truck and make money.. but you're not going to truck/train it to the coast and then put it on a cargo ship and have any margin left)..

People can live on anger for so long.. sooner or later Canadians are going to need to feed their families..

I completely get Canadian sentiment.. but being sold a bill of goods that simply doesn't measure up to the facts and figures by politicians doesn't maintain the economy..

What will make it increasingly bad for Canada is if they are the last country to try to come to the table (because the politicians have sold a bad bill of goods and the CBC has people acting out of anger rather and than thinking through the facts).. Once deals are made with the Mexicans, Europeans, Japanese, Chinese, etc.. there will be far less need/desire for Canaidan goods that compete with those other countries products (like Mexican made auto parts)..

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

We'll have to see how it all works out..

I think Carney would be committing economic suicide... I adhere to Kevin O'leary's point of view..

Whether Canada likes it or not, 75% of all of its international trade is with the US and has been more for than 100 years. 17 states in particular do the overwhelming majority of that trade.

The EU doesn't have the economic ability (or desire) to pick up that 75%.. There is very little that Canada isn't exporting to the US that the EU doesn't already have suppliers for.. and most of those suppliers are other EU countries..

Canada's three largest exports are energy (crude oil and petroleum gas), motor vehicles and parts (largely for US make/model vehicles), and metal ores and minerals..

EU doesn't have the correct refineries to work with Canadian crude.. so the EU isn't an option there.. there is a very small appetite for American make/model vehicles in Europe.. so most of those items arent going to the EU.. and Europe is for the most part dealing with each other for the primary ores that Canada exports to the US, not to mention some of the ores, like potashe doesn't have enough value per metric ton to make it worth shipping the great distance to Europe (you can move it by train or truck and make money.. but you're not going to truck/train it to the coast and then put it on a cargo ship and have any margin left)..

People can live on anger for so long.. sooner or later Canadians are going to need to feed their families..

I completely get Canadian sentiment.. but being sold a bill of goods that simply doesn't measure up to the facts and figures by politicians doesn't maintain the economy..

What will make it increasingly bad for Canada is if they are the last country to try to come to the table (because the politicians have sold a bad bill of goods and the CBC has people acting out of anger rather and than thinking through the facts).. Once deals are made with the Mexicans, Europeans, Japanese, Chinese, etc.. there will be far less need/desire for Canaidan goods that compete with those other countries products (like Mexican made auto parts)..

@WAB would have a better idea on timeline but it seems to reason that the time it would take to retool a refinery and the time it would take to construct a pipeline are probably aligned to see Canada ship oil via ocean in the medium term. Any leader that doesn’t build a pipeline in the next term is a utter fool the country is aligned behind it including Quebec @60% which never happens.

 

[Kevin Peacocke]

Photo ID to vote always polls above water with Dems, more so now than a decade ago.

Let me offer an example that may hit close to some on the forum.

Tariffs ripple through domestic manufacturing. Let's take my Ford F-250. The U.S. auto industry leans heavily on imported parts, and slapping tariffs on those inputs will increase costs quickly. Moreover, those costs can not be addressed quickly because of the extensive worldwide supply chain supporting that manufacturing process.

The Center for Automotive Research, pegs foreign content in U.S.-made vehicles at 20-40% on average, depending on the model. A heavy-duty like the F-250, built in Kentucky or Ohio, is about 30% — steel from Canada, electronics from Mexico, and specialty components from Asia. Trump’s 25% tariff on autos and parts, set for April 2025, plus the broader 10-20% universal tariffs, will directly impact those components. I can testify from personal experience, no manufacturer, including Ford is not swapping out that global supply chain overnight; it’s a years-long retooling process, if it happens at all. There is already a lot of grumbling among both management and workers in swing state land about a potential reduction in demand regardless of a long term onshoring strategy,

Cost-wise, it isn't pretty for the consumer. If 30% of my F-250 content is hit with a 25% tariff, that’s a 7.5% bump on the sticker price before factoring in retaliation or supply disruptions. A $60,000 truck could jump to $64,500 - the increase I noted in my previous post. Add in steel tariffs (Canada’s a big supplier), and it’s more. Automobile manufacturers are already running fairly tight margins due to domestic competition. They have little room to eat anything so prices will go up - probably quickly. It took decades to create competitive supply chains - recreating them won't happen overnight.

I think this reality undercuts either tariff goals. Revenue? Higher costs tank demand, shrinking import volumes and tariff revenue. Trade rebalancing? Domestic production suffers too, not just foreign rivals. And by the way, Toyota’s U.S. plants use imported parts—same problem. Consumers will feel it either way. Assuming the real strategic play is to force manufacturing back - that could work eventually, but any meaningful lag means U.S. goods could be a lot higher fall of next year.

I thought that the tariff hikes imposed by the US were a) in retalliation for unfair tariffs imposed by recipient countries which make US goods unviable over there, b) to force a behavioural change where there are destructive tendencies , for example free flow of fentenyl, c) to balance trade and stimulate local industry. These all sound like pretty honourable and reasonable goals to me and surey it is only reasonable to expect that there will be some pain in winning what is in effect a war. Looking to the converse, what would the picture look like in ten or twenty years time if nothing were done to correct the imbalances, especially with the shifting picture of whom one's real and sincere friends are in the future. The US was most certainly being taken advantage of on very many fronts, which is being exposed more and more as the digging continues and the question somebody needed to search is when would that become unsustainable? Looking at the ever burgeoning US national debt the obvious answer is it is already unsustainable. Imagine if the dollar was not the world trading foundation!
To your point, probably the general electorate isn't prepared to absorb much or any pain, so it is in effect a race to get positive results before the next election. Hopefully falling egg and gas prices will compensate for the vehicles, etc.

 

[mdwest]

@WAB would have a better idea on timeline but it seems to reason that the time it would take to retool a refinery and the time it would take to construct a pipeline are probably aligned to see Canada ship oil via ocean in the medium term. Any leader that doesn’t build a pipeline in the next term is a utter fool the country is aligned behind it including Quebec @60% which never happens.

Completely agree on the oil issue.. but that takes both time and money... and those are items Canada is in short supply of..

and doesn't solve the thousands of jobs at the auto plants, mineral mines, etc.. that suddenly dry up.. or help the small businesses that rely on US markets ($1.2M in butter sold in the US annually.. $44M in eggs sold in the US.. $896M in pork sold to the US.. etc..etc..).. those are the sort of things mentioned in the earlier post that Europe doesn't have an appetite for.. because they already trade among themselves for those items.. to pick up the Canadian export, they'd be shutting down the import from another EU country.. The chance that Europeans are suddenly going to start consuming greater amounts of pork, eggs, butter, etc.. that is more expensive because of shipping costs, than they are already consuming doesn't pass the Carney "joint trade coalition" sniff test..

 

[rigbymauser]

Putin calls up 160,000 men to Russian army in latest conscription drive, at crucial moment in Ukraine war​

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/02/europe/putin-russia-spring-conscription-ukraine-intl/index.html

As much as I can declare Russia as an enemy I can not help thinking all these young men going direct into a meatgrinder. I have a son left of 24years of age(our youngest son passed away last year)and if I lived in Putins Russia I would do anything to get him out of Russia even if I faced imprisonment for life. Behind these numbers will be lots of irrepairable tragedies. If what I hear is true, the battles are brutal and its better to kill yourself than being captured and mutilated. They hate eachother to the core.

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

I thought that the tariff hikes imposed by the US were a) in retalliation for unfair tariffs imposed by recipient countries which make US goods unviable over there, b) to force a behavioural change where there are destructive tendencies , for example free flow of fentenyl, c) to balance trade and stimulate local industry. These all sound like pretty honourable and reasonable goals to me and surey it is only reasonable to expect that there will be some pain in winning what is in effect a war. Looking to the converse, what would the picture look like in ten or twenty years time if nothing were done to correct the imbalances, especially with the shifting picture of whom one's real and sincere friends are in the future. The US was most certainly being taken advantage of on very many fronts, which is being exposed more and more as the digging continues and the question somebody needed to search is when would that become unsustainable? Looking at the ever burgeoning US national debt the obvious answer is it is already unsustainable. Imagine if the dollar was not the world trading foundation!
To your point, probably the general electorate isn't prepared to absorb much or any pain, so it is in effect a race to get positive results before the next election. Hopefully falling egg and gas prices will compensate for the vehicles, etc.

Yes Canada is a terrible friend to the U.S. what with every Canadian out spending every American in cross boarder spending by a mere 7000$. If the spending was actually balanced the canada/U.S. trade deficit would be to the tune of 2.38 trillion annually.

 

[fourfive8]

Dang, snoozed and lost! Tariffs kicked in and I missed my opportunity for a used Tata Nano and a cherry Yugo

 

[Altitude sickness]

I think the reason Canadians cross the border is for cheaper goods. Especially Gas and diesel fuel.

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

Completely agree on the oil issue.. but that takes both time and money... and those are items Canada is in short supply of..

and doesn't solve the thousands of jobs at the auto plants, mineral mines, etc.. that suddenly dry up.. or help the small businesses that rely on US markets ($1.2M in butter sold in the US annually.. $44M in eggs sold in the US.. $896M in pork sold to the US.. etc..etc..).. those are the sort of things mentioned in the earlier post that Europe doesn't have an appetite for.. because they already trade among themselves for those items.. to pick up the Canadian export, they'd be shutting down the import from another EU country.. The chance that Europeans are suddenly going to start consuming greater amounts of pork, eggs, butter, etc.. that is more expensive because of shipping costs, than they are already consuming doesn't pass the Carney "joint trade coalition" sniff test..

Those jobs don’t dry up over night , regardless of what the tariffs do it’ll take years to retool the auto sector. Most likely the auto industry isn’t going to do anything but make hollow promises for the next 18 months to the U.S. administration and wait for the mid terms.
Food staffs your importing most likely the the supply isn’t being met domestically or you wouldn’t be importing them anyway. Same with potash 100% of the tariff can be passed on to the consumer you can’t meet your needs domestically anyway tariff as much as you want you just drive the the price of produce higher.

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

I think the reason Canadians cross the border is for cheaper goods. Especially Gas and diesel fuel.

Those numbers are on imports not cross boarder shopping