Politics

[Altitude sickness]

My info is purely anecdotal


Where are they spending $7k per

I live just across Lake Huron from Sarina Ont. and :30 from the Blue Water bridge. I have cousins in Sarina

I see Canadian plates primarily at the box stores and gas stations.

 

[steve white]

So......what's next? With Crawford in, will Gerrymandering result in House losing seats....will we lose the House? Then, back to impeachment proceedings.......recycle of the past total time waste. Tell me this country is not headed for a bloodbath.

Didn't the Democrats go to court to stop gerrymandering in another southern state "so minority districts would not be eliminated" or some such. They want to have it both ways. Why should Republicans be limited but not the libs?

 

[Red Leg]

From what Trump and Bessent have said, the goal is to have those parts ultimately made in America. Evidently companies and countries have committed around $3T of investment so far. Will it work. Only time will tell.

When you live in your house and decide to remodel, there is the transition period that isn't necessarily fun.

I get that with respect to the repatriation goal. I am simply pointing out that reestablishing a profitable supply chain that has been built over decades will be a huge and very expensive undertaking for US based manufacturing. Therefore everything, whether foreign or domestic production, will cost more. The "Bidenfaltion" argument helped propel the republicans into office this year. Four years of meaningfully higher prices and corresponding reduced consumer activity could prove an absolute catastrophe in '28. I would seriously caution against being too Pollyannaish.

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

As much as I can declare Russia as an enemy I can not help thinking all these young men going direct into a meatgrinder. I have a son left of 24years of age(our youngest son passed away last year)and if I lived in Putins Russia I would do anything to get him out of Russia even if I faced imprisonment for life. Behind these numbers will be lots of irrepairable tragedies. If what I hear is true, the battles are brutal and its better to kill yourself than being captured and mutilated. They hate eachother to the core.

Very sorry for your loss..

 

[Red Leg]

Didn't the Democrats go to court to stop gerrymandering in another southern state "so minority districts would not be eliminated" or some such. They want to have it both ways. Why should Republicans be limited but not the libs?

These cases end up being appealed at state supreme courts and hence the importance of that election.

 

[mdwest]

Those jobs don’t dry up over night , regardless of what the tariffs do it’ll take years to retool the auto sector. Most likely the auto industry isn’t going to do anything but make hollow promises for the next 18 months to the U.S. administration and wait for the mid terms.
Food staffs your importing most likely the the supply isn’t being met domestically or you wouldn’t be importing them anyway. Same with potash 100% of the tariff can be passed on to the consumer you can’t meet your needs domestically anyway tariff as much as you want you just drive the the price of produce higher.

I think many of them do....

Lets take copper for example..

The US mines copper.. but its needs are far greater than it can produce on its own... So it imports about $35M a year in copper ore from Canada and another $1.2B in refined copper from Canada..

But.. Canada is NOT one of the largest producers of copper in the world.. Chile exports about $24B a year.. Peru, $20B... Indonesia $8B.. Australia $5B.. Zambia $6.9B..

Guess who has almost NO tariffs in place on US goods?

CHILE.. in 2004 the US and Chile signed a free trade agreement that eliminated almost 95% of tariffs on all goods imported into either country..

So how hard is it to replace Canadian copper tomorrow with Chilean (or other countries) copper once Canadian copper becomes 25% more expensive overnight?


The same is true with most other major minerals to one degree or another..

Lets look at aluminum.. Canada produces a LOT of aluminum.. it exports about $12.5B a year.. much of that to the US..

The US imports that aluminum for a couple of reasons.. canada has lower energy costs, which makes the smelting process cheaper.. and the US shifted a lot of its resources many years ago to recycled and scrap capacity.. so its become reliant on Canada to a certain degree to meet its needs..

HOWEVER..

The US actually produces substantially more aluminum that it needs, and exports more aluminum globally than Canada does (we sell about $13.1B in aluminum abroad).. because tariffs that other countries have placed on each other around the world make US aluminum very attractive in certain markets..

So.. when Canadian aluminum becomes 25% more expensive tomorrow (losing that competitive advantage obtained through lower energy costs and cheaper prices than US made aluminum yesterday).. how does the US respond?

It simply uses its own aluminum (which is a greater quantity than Canada produces) and slows its global exports...

Its certainly not going to pay more for Canadian aluminum when American aluminum is now less expensive..

 

[mdwest]

My info is purely anecdotal


Where are they spending $7k per

I live just across Lake Huron from Sarina Ont. and :30 from the Blue Water bridge. I have cousins in Sarina

I see Canadian plates primarily at the box stores and gas stations.

the problem with the $7K argument that gets made is that its an apples to oranges argument..

when speaking to $7K, we're talking about the average individual consumer of products, goods, and services.. (looking at a micro economic issue)..

whats not being addressed is the industry level concerns and national economic concerns which are the focus of most of the Canada and Mexico tariffs (oil, minerals, manufacturing parts, etc).. which ultimately make their way to the consumers in the form of end products.. but are macro economic issues..

micro economic issues are easy to overcome.. cant find Irish butter on the shelves anymore? or Irish butter has gotten too expensive for your budget? you just switch to an alternative.. there are lots and lots of options..

the macro issues like "where are we going to sell 100M barrels of oil now????" or "what happens to the Ontario economy (or the AZ economy) when 4 major factories shut down.. are what matters here..

 

[Red Leg]

Very sorry for your loss..

The Ukrainian battles, like all battles, are very brutal. They are particularly so for the Russians who have been maintaining an offensive tempo against prepared Ukrainian defensive positions for nearly a year. For the last eight months or so, Russian armor and artillery systems have been dramatically degraded forcing these attacks to be conducted by poorly trained unsupported infantry. Couple that with a Russian field medical capability that would be more at home in the 19th century than the 21st, and wounded Russians in particular are killing themselves on the battlefield. Two or three clips are posted daily on Ukrainian channels. If the Russians were observing similar behavior in the UA, they would making a major propaganda effort around it. They are not.

About a month ago, a photo of a what was purported to be an official Russian document encouraging such suicides was published by the UA. I obviously have no independent knowledge whether that is true. But, all those wounded people are a drag on both the Russian military and economy as a whole.

But the UAV videos are very real. Like the materiel counts over on Oryx, they also only report what is seen through those soda straw views of the battlefield.

 

[mdwest]

I keep hearing about how "battle hardened" the Russians (and Ukranian) forces are becoming.. Im having a hard time buying into that though..

no doubt that at this point a number of troops on both sides have been through the grinder enough that they have become very good at both lethality and survivability..

with the loses each side has sustained, the ratio of "battle hardened" troops (specifically leaders) to "new guys" that might have the benefit of some limited training from the "battle hardened" NCO's and officers, but haven't actually been in the fight long enough to be "hardened" has got to be very low..

with GWOT, losses were somewhat limited when compared to the total number of personnel deployed and the total number of deployments those personnel completed.. the US and many of our partner nations came out of GWOT with a much more skilled and capable fighting force than it entered with..

I cant believe the same is true with the Russians at this point.. their officer and NCO corps have been ravaged.. and the fact that they are sending in new conscripts in large numbers is telling (they lack large numbers of old, experienced troops to re-deploy)..

 

[Wheels]

I think your wrong on Canada every leader with a chance of taking the election is talking hard ball and carney who is (unfortunately) ahead in the polls is looking to form a joint trade coalition with the E.U. I don’t see a quick resolution to Canada U.S. trade and I don’t see a long term solution where the U.S. gets the lions share of Canadian oil without buying it off the open market.

The anti American sentiment is going to carry this election and any leader that turns around and makes any amount of trade concessions is going to get crucified. The average Canadian voter is about one step away from burning flags in their displeasure at the U.S.

Both parties in Canada are taking a hard stance now. It will be interesting to see if this changes after the election. My hunch is that talks progress pretty fast by the first week in May.

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

Both parties in Canada are taking a hard stance now. It will be interesting to see if this changes after the election. My hunch is that talks progress pretty fast by the first week in May.

If so and it’s a minority government expect a fall election after a non confidence vote and a change of government.

 

[mdwest]

Both parties in Canada are taking a hard stance now. It will be interesting to see if this changes after the election. My hunch is that talks progress pretty fast by the first week in May.

Im guessing that the conservatives are seeing whats happening on the liberal side (clammoring for taking a hard position against Trump is getting positive results).. so they are attempting to jump on board and get some traction of their own with the same issue..

the problem I see with that is.. its no different than Kamala suddenly being on board with "no taxes on tips!", "securing the border" and all the other BS she tried to glom onto in the final month of the election in the US..

they weren't her ideas or ideals and everyone knew it.. so it was seen as bullshit.. and no one got on board at all..

Conservatives are going to need to separate themselves from liberals in a way that is appealing to the Canadian people.. and they're running out of time to make that happen.. if they're just Carney/Trudeau/Freeland/et al in another colored suit, why not just stick with what you've got?

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

the problem with the $7K argument that gets made is that its an apples to oranges argument..

when speaking to $7K, we're talking about the average individual consumer of products, goods, and services.. (looking at a micro economic issue)..

whats not being addressed is the industry level concerns and national economic concerns which are the focus of most of the Canada and Mexico tariffs (oil, minerals, manufacturing parts, etc).. which ultimately make their way to the consumers in the form of end products.. but are macro economic issues..

micro economic issues are easy to overcome.. cant find Irish butter on the shelves anymore? or Irish butter has gotten too expensive for your budget? you just switch to an alternative.. there are lots and lots of options..

the macro issues like "where are we going to sell 100M barrels of oil now????" or "what happens to the Ontario economy (or the AZ economy) when 4 major factories shut down.. are what matters here..

So far the 7000$ dollar number you don’t like is the only factual one I’ve heard, any number being tossed around by trump is either fallacy or an outright lie.

You can slice it any way you like at the end of the day Canadians out spend you 6.6 to one per capita and your president still wants more.

 

[Wheels]

So far the 7000$ dollar number you don’t like is the only factual one I’ve heard, any number being tossed around by trump is either fallacy or an outright lie.

You can slice it any way you like at the end of the day Canadians out spend you 6.6 to one per capita and your president still wants more.

America's trade deficit with Canada was $60b last year. That is the only real number Lutnick, Bessent, Lightheizer care about.

 

[mdwest]

Im not disagreeing with the dollar amount... I genuinely don't know what it is.. it could be $7K or $7 or $700K...

my point is whether an average every day Canadian buys more American products than the average every day American buys Canadian products really is an apples to oranges argument on the major industries and items that are going to be impacted by tariffs..

to be honest Im not sure its even an apples to oranges argument.. its more of a red herring IMO.

so American products go up by 25%.. and Canadian individual consumers slow or stop buying American products.. while at the same time Canadian products go up by 25% and American individual consumers slow or stop buying Canadian products... what difference does that make? and what does it have to do with the tariff argument?

An individuals consumption practices have little to do with whether a nation is a good trade partner..

Indivudal consumption has very little relevance to the macro economic issues of whether or not Canadian imports can easily be replaced in the US or American imports can easily be replaced in Canada.. and what the long term impacts will be to the various industries involved..

Whether or not Canadians like American products more than Americans like Canadian products.. or whether its an issue of availability, commonality, or anything else is really inconsequential..

The question is how easily and quickly can those products and services be replaced and/or what the tolerance of each countries culture is for paying inflated prices..

According to you and other Canadians (and I believe you), sentiment in Canada is currently just shy of "flag burning" protest..

If that's true, whether tariffs are in place or not, there will likely be a steep decline in Canadian individual consumer purchases of American products that you would find in department stores, grocery stores, etc..etc..

Which has nothing at all to do with how Canada will offload oil that it cant sell in the US any longer, copper that the US isn't buying, aluminum that the US isn't buying, etc.. vs who the US will offload its surplus of plastics, fleet motor vehicles and parts, and heavy machinery to (things the typical end user consumer doesn't purchase)..

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

Im guessing that the conservatives are seeing whats happening on the liberal side (clammoring for taking a hard position against Trump is getting positive results).. so they are attempting to jump on board and get some traction of their own with the same issue..

the problem I see with that is.. its no different than Kamala suddenly being on board with "no taxes on tips!", "securing the border" and all the other BS she tried to glom onto in the final month of the election in the US..

they weren't her ideas or ideals and everyone knew it.. so it was seen as bullshit.. and no one got on board at all..

Conservatives are going to need to separate themselves from liberals in a way that is appealing to the Canadian people.. and they're running out of time to make that happen.. if they're just Carney/Trudeau/Freeland/et al in another colored suit, why not just stick with what you've got?

The real issue is the liberals have run a successful smear campaign holding up Pollievre in comparison to trump and the short sightedness of the average Canadian voter allowed them to blame shift and drive polling numbers down.

 

[mdwest]

The real issue is the liberals have run a successful smear campaign holding up Pollievre in comparison to trump and the short sightedness of the average Canadian voter allowed them to blame shift and drive polling numbers down.

Sadly Canadian voters sound a whole lot like American voters..

We probably have far more in common than anyone actually realizes..

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

Im not disagreeing with the dollar amount... I genuinely don't know what it is.. it could be $7K or $7 or $700K...

my point is whether an average every day Canadian buys more American products than the average every day American buys Canadian products really is an apples to oranges argument on the major industries and items that are going to be impacted by tariffs..

to be honest Im not sure its even an apples to oranges argument.. its more of a red herring IMO.

so American products go up by 25%.. and Canadians slow or stop buying American products.. while at the same time Canadian products go up by 25% and Americans slow or stop buying Canadian products... what difference does that make? and what does it have to do with the tariff argument?

An individuals consumption practices have little to do with whether a nation is a good trade partner..

Indivudal consumption has very little relevance to the macro economic issues of whether or not Canadian imports can easily be replaced in the US or American imports can easily be replaced in Canada.. and what the long term impacts will be to the various industries involved..

Whether or not Canadians like American products more than Americans like Canadian products.. or whether its an issue of availability, commonality, or anything else is really inconsequential..

The question is how easily and quickly can those products and services be replaced and/or what the tolerance of each countries culture is for paying inflated prices..

According to you and other Canadians (and I believe you), sentiment in Canada is currently just shy of "flag burning" protest..

If that's true, whether tariffs are in place or not, there will likely be a steep decline in Canadian individual consumer purchases of American products that you would find in department stores, grocery stores, etc..etc..

Which has nothing at all to do with how Canada will offload oil that it cant sell in the US any longer, copper that the US isn't buying, aluminum that the US isn't buying, etc.. vs who the US will offload its surplus of plastics, fleet motor vehicles and parts, and heavy machinery to (things the typical end user consumer doesn't purchase)..

7000= the difference in per capita spending if you take the numbers used to find the trade deficit. It’s not end consumers shopping at wall mart.

The trade deficit is currently 63.3 billion dollars

Canada exports 349.4 billion dollars from the U.S.
the U.S. exports 412.7 billion from Canada
The population of Canada is 40 million
The population of the u.s. is 340 million

340b/40m=8750
414b/340m=1250
8750-1250= 7500 (the difference in per capita spending) which is encompassing all of the industries you sighted.

 

[mdwest]

Interesting...

speculation was the markets would take a huge dump today based on the tariffs going live..

the opposite is true... the Dow is up 235 points, S&P is up 38, and NASDAQ is up 151..

 

[Wheels]

Think the markets were already priced in. Rebound may have to do with countries like Viet Nam, India, Israel coming to terms and dozens of countries in last minute talks.