Politics

[Tanks]

Got an email from one of my vendors. Effective April 30. Of course, things are fluid. I have a proposal for two clients, I have asked the manager doing the proposals to put in a disclaimer that all equipment prices are subject to change as it will take them 60-90 days to issue purchase orders.

...
Product lines of note experiencing price increases include: small price increases from 1% to 5% affecting many pneumatics components; certain power supplies, transformers, Hazloc control stations, certain servo components, and timers/relays. Increases of 5% to 15% affect many process sensors, safety switches,, motors, fuses, and electrical connectors. Price increases above 15% are primarily affecting stepper system components, and various parts in disconnects and motor controls. Other categories may have changes as well.

 

[SaintPanzer]

That's fair. Right after the euro was adopted wasn't it like $1.25-$1.30 USD? You'd think you'd be able to find data that far back but nope.

Does this help: https://www.macrotrends.net/2548/euro-dollar-exchange-rate-historical-chart

 

[Red Leg]

The strategy is working so wonderfully well that the DOW will close today down over 2,200 or 5.5%, the Nasdaq down nearly a thousand or almost 6%, and the S&P 500 down 322 or almost 6%. Neither the president nor the party has anywhere to hide because this is completely attributable to Trump's trade war. I am not sure who is winning the war, but the US markets are losing this battle bigly and a few more days of this and Trump and his thirty percent can forget about their mandate.

 

[SaintPanzer]

I have an honest question regarding what I am now calling the Penguin Charts.

Who made the charts?

I'm sure it wasn't the President himself who was playing in Excel. So which staffer?

Which staffer who disagrees with this through those silly places in, comfortable in the knowledge that the higher ups wouldn't check that closely (they don't have time), and confident it would look silly when published, and confident egos would not allow for backing down?

I mean, I think this whole tariff thing is buffoonery, and I think Congress could resolve some of these issues... but including "Penguin Places" is either sheer incompetence (and I admit that possibility), or malicious compliance (also possible).

So who is willing to explore that possibility? Honestly, the implications of that scare me more than the implications of incompetence, and I believe that alone makes it worth exploring.

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

True, but everybody knew the tariffs were coming.

Yea but I don’t think anyone expected this..

 

[spike.t]

I have an honest question regarding what I am now calling the Penguin Charts.

Who made the charts?

I'm sure it wasn't the President himself who was playing in Excel. So which staffer?

Which staffer who disagrees with this through those silly places in, comfortable in the knowledge that the higher ups wouldn't check that closely (they don't have time), and confident it would look silly when published, and confident egos would not allow for backing down?

I mean, I think this whole tariff thing is buffoonery, and I think Congress could resolve some of these issues... but including "Penguin Places" is either sheer incompetence (and I admit that possibility), or malicious compliance (also possible).

So who is willing to explore that possibility? Honestly, the implications of that scare me more than the implications of incompetence, and I believe that alone makes it worth exploring.

If I could do a voice message about all this shit it would be interesting....that includes the tariff shit...because they aren't actually based on "tariffs " ...fkn unbelievable ....Will have another Bombay and tonic and shake my head in ....something or other.....

 

[Graham Hunter]

Well all you Browning fans are going to get a 24% increase as they are all made in Japan.

 

[cwpayton]

Maybe your too impatient, could be you give up to soon, there is a long term plan too bring industry back too America, IF for no other reason it would be worth it too have a quality product that last 10 years instead of 1, like the bucket ,5 lbs, of "stainless steel " screws I bought to build my Suanna with and the heads twisted off of about 20% of them . yep made in china. cheap to, .not cheap when you have to stop and remove them with vise grips.
seems Trump has been successful in alot so far as uncovering billions in fraud ,waste, securing the border against an influx of Terrorist, and thieves of SS. MEDICARE ,ECT.
SHOULD have known the stock market is a gamble not a solid investment , its driven by fear, hysteria, and insider trading by politician's, wall street is not main street.
But if your nhell bent on complaining about the unknown future there are big rallies planned for saturday with the obamma , biden ,soros crowd. But you could stand fast and wait before jumping on the "its all lost" crowd, campaign .

 

[mdwest]

The strategy is working so wonderfully well that the DOW will close today down over 2,200 or 5.5%, the Nasdaq down nearly a thousand or almost 6%, and the S&P 500 down 322 or almost 6%. Neither the president nor the party has anywhere to hide because this is completely attributable to Trump's trade war. I am not sure who is winning the war, but the US markets are losing this battle bigly and a few more days of this and Trump and his thirty percent can forget about their mandate.

All of the global markets are way down..

France -4.26%
UK -4.95%
Canada -4.69%
Switzerland -5.14%
Italy -6.53%

Definitely causing a global sell off.. no one has done "well" for the last 2 days..

 

[Alistair]

I have heard different things so hopefully someone with better knowledge on this can shed some insight.

What was said was that the tariffs are suppose to bring in an additional 600B dollars. This money can give congress the ability to pass bigger tax cuts through reconciliation because the tax cuts are offset by the tariff revenue and will not increase the deficit.

I have also heard that tariff revenue cant be considered as part of the reconciliation.

Does anyone know, or have the statue that would allow or not allow expected tariff revenue to be considered/used in reconciliation?

I (not at all an expert) don't see a reason why the tarrifs couldn't be used to justify say income tax tax cuts tbf. It's just one tax revenue source vs another.

If the true 'tax take' from tariffs really is 600bn though, it'd have to be quite the tax cut.

600bn = $1700 a year in tax increase for every person in America. Man, woman and child. Working, retired, unemployed.

For the wealthy, it wouldn't take much of an income tax cut to make them whole again; they pay a lot in income tax, even a 1% drop covers $1.7k or so.

But for the average US family, 2 parents, 2 kids, annual household income 120k/yr, you'd need to be reducing income tax burden by 6800, or 5.7% of their gross annual salary just to break even on 'goods you can buy with your take home pay'. To remind, TOTAL income tax take from 2x 60k/yr jobs = $27k. So you'd be looking at cutting income tax by 25% at the median rate. Just to break even.

Plus of course, this new tax is quite a bit less progressive (in the finance way, not the political parlance) than current income tax structure, so for poorer families, you'd need to cut by a lot more than 25%. Down at 45,000 household income for example, the new income tax burden would need to be 0 to break even. And (sweeping, but accurate, generalization) poor people don't save, and they don't live within their means, so more of their gross annual income is spent on goods, and they're even more exposed.

For the median wage earner in America (appx 48k/annum), the tax they're paying for tariffs (assuming 600bn and $1700/person) equals roughly 1/4 of their TOTAL 2024 tax burden from all other sources... and unlike the extortionate expenses that the Biden admin incurred on a per household basis, they'll actually need to pay it (and will notice it) every time they buy goods.

I'll say this. It is quite a clever and subtle way to do some wealth redistribution if the tariffs do ultimately fund income tax cuts. I'd not be that sad about it personally, I'd be on the 'correct' side of the ledger in that scenario, as would most of us on this forum.

But I think a lot of those rural and rust belt MAGA supporters would be rather less impressed. As might the traditional, reliable R voting block (pensioners) who not only have to stretch their fixed income further to cover tariff taxes, but also now have roughly 10% less in their pension pot to draw on, AND don't see the benefits of a lower income tax threshold as they weren't paying much, if any income tax, anyway...

 

[Red Leg]

All of the global markets are way down..

France -4.26%
UK -4.95%
Canada -4.69%
Switzerland -5.14%
Italy -6.53%

Definitely causing a global sell off.. no one has done "well" for the last 2 days..

Agreed, but that is not my point. Other than the border, Trump won on the perception that he was trusted to manage the economy. Whether this is a purely a US or global reset, Trump owns what is happening right now more than any single politician has owned an economic swing in my lifetime. Regardless how overvalued the markets may or may not have been, no bubble burst. The responsibility for this, in the mind of every voter in the country, is and will be Donald Trump and his economic policy. Six months from now we may all awaken to some new economic miracle breaking out across the fruited plain, but for the moment, this thing is political weapon's grade plutonium.

 

[Doubleplay]

MAGA crowd here is still trying to defend this dumbest tarıff move in recent history blaming Powell and how it’s going to bring 600 billion etc….
I have news for you a recession which is certain will vipe out trillions in government receipts and our deficit will grow even bigger. Another dumb move like lowering taxes for the upper class will even add more to it.
Our exports will sink because of reciprocal tariffs and a lot of people will lose their jobs.
Biden was a puppet but this guy is beyond hope and will cause great harm not to the economy but to the Republican party as well.
This is beyond reason madness and I guarantee you that there will be resentment within and he’ll lose his intimidation power inside the party when more people jump ship.
I don’t know how he or the party can survive this.

 

[spike.t]

What a joke...

'Math makes no sense at all': Lesotho, one of Africa's poorest nations, hit with 50% US tariff

Lesotho, a landlocked country in southern Africa, is part of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) along with South Africa, Namibia, Eswatini, and Botswana.

www.businesstoday.in

 

[spike.t]

Ohhh....another one...of many....

Falklands surprised to be on Trump's 'worst offenders' tariff list

The British overseas territory is facing a 42% tax on the goods it exports to the US.

www.bbc.com

 

[Doubleplay]

I’m sure MAGA crowd aren’t aware but some Republican senators already started to raise their voices including Ted Cruz.

 

[Doubleplay]

What a joke...

'Math makes no sense at all': Lesotho, one of Africa's poorest nations, hit with 50% US tariff

Lesotho, a landlocked country in southern Africa, is part of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) along with South Africa, Namibia, Eswatini, and Botswana.

www.businesstoday.in

Like in the movie dumb and dumber.

 

[Wheels]

Some are saying this is the start of a trade war. There has been a tariff war going on for decades. America has been loosing. Should America do nothing and continue loosing for the sake of everyone but America being comfortable.

Tariff wars hurt surplus nations the worst. America has been a deficit nation for years. It looks like a number of nations are coming to the table to work out deals. If enough come forward the pressure builds on the others to fall in line. If enough countries band together they could make it rough on America but getting an agreement like that hammered out will be worse than herding cats.

Equities have been taking it on the chin. Change is always uncomfortable, often painful.

As an American I am glad to see an attempt being made to get to a more balanced trade relationship. Will it work, I don't know. What I do know is this is the first real attempt America has made in my lifetime. I am willing to accept the pain for the chance for a permanent reset.

 

[Brent in Az]

Some serious purveyors of gloom & doom around here

 

[Field28]

Well all you Browning fans are going to get a 24% increase as they are all made in Japan.

I thought it was all FN Portugal now, didn't know that Miroku was back in the game.
But yeah, all those Buckmark hats and stickers are made in China.

Damn i miss the old kangaroo featherweights and down jackets.
Remember when their major competitor in boots and clothing was Cabela's and it was all made in the USA? Before they got bought out by the Walmart of hunting supplies... BPS. China!

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

It’s funny I look at trumps charts and the math used to find his numbers and it very much resembles the numbers I was using a few pages back… numbers that were dismissed as being oranges to the apples at hand and red herrings.