Politics

[rigbymauser]

So... Based on your worldly wisdom, we should leave everything "As is", and continue into the economic abyss and death spiral of debt?

You might be right, but please don`t believe the "death spiral" is because the "the whole world is freeloading". Your country has been ruined by greedy corporate hedgefonds, wall street speculants, greedy banks whos only mission is to drain honest peoples hard earned money etc etc. They not only drain your money but place money in "taxheavens" and avoid the revenue that should have been placed in america. But hey Joe...its blessed and accepted because its all about the Benjamins and that speaks directly into "the american dream" Get rich regardsless of the cost!!.Then the war on terror with 20 years in the middle-east looking for weapons-of-mas-destruction which was not in a NATO regi but many contributed anyway without asking questions. The your war on drugs. Why is it the US is the worlds largest importer of cocain(and other drugs)?. Then the fentanyl crisis(read Purdue). World record in Highschool shootouts.

As I see it there are things in your "set-up" as a society that does a pretty dang good job in making life misrable for many americans. We europeans only sells you nice cars, nice rifles, good watches, hunting optics, make techstuff for your F35, sciencerockets etc. Please don`t blame us for a financial "death spiral".

 

[Brent in Az]

You might be right, but please don`t believe the "death spiral" is because the "the whole world is freeloading". Your country has been ruined by greedy corporate hedgefonds, wall street speculants, greedy banks whos only mission is to drain honest peoples hard earned money etc etc. They not only drain your money but place money in "taxheavens" and avoid the revenue that should have been placed in america. But hey Joe...its blessed and accepted because its all about the Benjamins and that speaks directly into "the american dream" Get rich regardsless of the cost!!.Then the war on terror with 20 years in the middle-east looking for weapons-of-mas-destruction which was not in a NATO regi but many contributed anyway without asking questions. The your war on drugs. Why is it the US is the worlds largest importer of cocain(and other drugs)?. Then the fentanyl crisis(read Purdue). World record in Highschool shootouts.

As I see it there are things in your "set-up" as a society that does a pretty dang good job in making life misrable for many americans. We europeans only sells you nice cars, nice rifles, good watches, hunting optics, make techstuff for your F35, sciencerockets etc. Please don`t blame us for a financial "death spiral".

I don't blame anybody but my own country, and the stupid politicians that have created this dumpster fire.

 

[LivingTheDream]

how tanking the markets equates to "fixing America" or is in either this country's or party's interest.

In short, it doesn't. And if I am being honest, I don't think the administration considered this level of correction.

I think what you have is a bit of conflicting data points messaging as well as timing concerns. I will try to articulate this as best as possible while typing on my phone during my lunch break. From a timing perspective, P/E ratios were out of whack and were largely inflated based on expected growth, and with Trump winning we assumed deregulation would be progrowth. I dont think the market took him serious on Tariffs (remember how many people said you can't take Trump literally, opps). So you had an inflated market without the earnings to truly back those prices up, so when a shock to the growth narrative happen, you get what we have had the last couple of weeks. But I believe we were due from some sort of pullback. Now Trump caused the pullback due to the fact he doesn't have time, no one knows how the mid terms will go and he is a lame duck. Not an ideal way for this to play out.

I also think that they are focused on the 10yr and interest rates, so get both of those down you have to have an economic slowdown, so I do believe that they are trying to drive those down to encourage longer term investing (this is base on Bessent and Lutnick in the cabinet). Which I do think are worthy goals.

So I do think there is a plan. But to quote Mike Tyson, "everyone has a plan till they get punched in the mouth".

 

[HookMeUpII]

Concur...

While the DOW is down 1.43% this morning (at the time of this post... the Canadian markets are down 1.58 and 1.68.. Chile is down 2.47... Mexico down 1.63... Australia down 4.37.. China down 9.66.. India down 2.95... France down 4.78.. Germany down 4.13.. UK down 4.38.. Italy down 5.18..

Global markets are all taking a massive beating..

I think the question is... who is going to blink first? and who has the ability to weather the storm best?

All the currency manipulation in the world isn't going to correct a single day dive of 9.66 in China.. especially when the US market (where China is heavily invested) is also taking a huge dive...

This isn't the sort of thing that can go on for even 3-4 weeks without there being set backs that take decades to fix.. the markets are going to have to find a way to flatten out and stabilize.. or countries are going to have to start making serious concessions (the US included).. or a recession might be the best end result we could hope for...

Assume China loses 9% a day just for 5 days over the next 2 weeks.. what does almost a 50% loss in its markets do to multi billion dollar firms that China counts on for tax revenue?

Assume the US loses a total of just 15% of the S&P... how does that impact our 500 largest and most profitable companies? how does that impact not just pricing to the American consumer, but also tax revenue to the US govt?

Hopefully there's a team of people much smarter than I am out there managing all of this.. but its certainly not looking great at the moment..

The end game here was to break the concrete block in one shot with a 16 lb sledge hammer vs. a normal carpenter hammer and chisel. Which is more spectacular, more at risk of failure, and more likely to injure yourself? The 16 lb sledge. I rest my case.

Some countries are beginning to negotiate. I assume as news of that continues to break, the market will respond. China is going to do what China does. Fight tooth and nail. They hate us.

This is just his style. It's not my favorite. I think overall we are materially better than we were the last 4 years for sure. With that being said, not the way I wanted to see this handled. This didn't have to go this way.

The other side of it, to be fair, is we've been living with a trade imbalance heavily skewed against us for the last 4 decades, and likely, more. But once again, it wasn't something you were going to fix overnight.

 

[mdwest]

As I see it there are things in your "set-up" as a society that does a pretty dang good job in making life misrable for many americans. We europeans only sells you nice cars, nice rifles, good watches, hunting optics, make techstuff for your F35, sciencerockets etc. Please don`t blame us for a financial "death spiral".

Id say thats a classic example of a pot calling a kettle black... as I hear a lot of Europeans blaming Americans for all of their woes these days (in this thread fairly often as a matter of fact)...

true that much of Europe doesn't have the same problems (or to the same degree) that the US has...

but to believe Europe is remotely close to some sort of Utopia or is in a better place financially or socially is nothing short of ridiculous..

Theres a reason many financial analysts and economists are already predicting the 2020's to be another "lost decade" for the European economy.. (similar to the 2010 decade that most agree was a complete loss for Europe in terms of any gains to be made in growth or stability.. )...

Despite Europe knowing how to build fine cars, watches, and rifles.. It is hamstrung with low productivity which is a major contributor for its slow growth economy..

Economic policy has contributed in a HUGE way to the economic problems Europe faces (your politicians suck every bit as much as ours).. For example the European Central Bank raised rates an an attempt to combat inflation which in turn negatively impacted economic activity..

Lets not even bother to try to list all of the social issues.. the Human Rights Watch 2024 report goes into great detail about problems tied to mass migrant admission into Europe and how that has spurned issues with discrimination, poverty, inequality, significant issues with the adherence to rule of law, etc..etc..

The US is far from perfect..

But Id venture a guess that there are still far more Europeans wanting to migrate to the US than there are US citizens actively trying to migrate to Europe... other than Rosie O'Donnel.. and Id guess most Americans are pretty happy shes gone, and hope that you guys keep her..

 

[Red Leg]

The other side of it, to be fair, is we've been living with a trade imbalance heavily skewed against us for the last 4 decades, and likely, more. But once again, it wasn't something you were going to fix overnight.

Pretty close. 1975 was the last year with a trade surplus.

 

[Red Leg]

Gold just slipped back below $3K. That is actually probably a good thing.

 

[spike.t]

Threatening another 50% on China....

Trump tariffs latest: Trump threatens extra 50% tariff on China unless it drops retaliatory levy

Turmoil caused by Donald Trump's tariffs continues - but the president urges people not to be "weak" or "stupid".

www.bbc.com

 

[mdwest]

watching some of the nuance issues of the stock market today...

DOW is now down about 2.5%.. I'm guessing it will close a little better than the European and Australian markets did today.. but it'll likely drop more than 3% before the lights are turned off this afternoon..

But look at the VIX and look at whats happening with a handful of key tech stocks today..

For those unfamiliar with VIX, its the Chicago exchange that most use to measure volatility and fear in the markets.. it tracks key stocks and whether they are up or down, and then builds trend analysis to determine how to best navigate fear and volatility.. basically you expect when the typical markets like DOW, S&P, etc are up that VIX is down... and that when DOW/S&P etc are down, VIX goes up.. but they are typically pretty much in line with each other (when they are out of line you should be considering why the market is operating more stability than it should or why it is more volatile than it should be..

the VIX is up 9.25%.. which is WAY out of line compared to the negative performance of the S&P and SOW.. basically saying the market is even more unstable and there is more fear driving the market than the loses in the market demonstrate..

then look at some key stocks in the market... while almost everyone is down by significant numbers, NVIDIA is up 1.62%.. LUCID is up 2.85%, Palantir is up 1.52%, Amazon up .87%, SoFi is up 1.52%...

All tech firms, all having made recent decisions to expand US based operations and/or invest in US manufacturing.. and/or are heavily involved in AI technologies..

there's some curious things going on right now that are being driven by more than just the tariff issue that everyone is concerned about..

 

[Hank2211]

That depends on what your LLM is in.

Corporate finance. From London School of Economics.

 

[SaintPanzer]

watching some of the nuance issues of the stock market today...

DOW is now down about 2.5%.. I'm guessing it will close a little better than the European and Australian markets did today.. but it'll likely drop more than 3% before the lights are turned off this afternoon..

But look at the VIX and look at whats happening with a handful of key tech stocks today..

For those unfamiliar with VIX, its the Chicago exchange that most use to measure volatility and fear in the markets.. it tracks key stocks and whether they are up or down, and then builds trend analysis to determine how to best navigate fear and volatility.. basically you expect when the typical markets like DOW, S&P, etc are up that VIX is down... and that when DOW/S&P etc are down, VIX goes up.. but they are typically pretty much in line with each other (when they are out of line you should be considering why the market is operating more stability than it should or why it is more volatile than it should be..

the VIX is up 9.25%.. which is WAY out of line compared to the negative performance of the S&P and SOW.. basically saying the market is even more unstable and there is more fear driving the market than the loses in the market demonstrate..

then look at some key stocks in the market... while almost everyone is down by significant numbers, NVIDIA is up 1.62%.. LUCID is up 2.85%, Palantir is up 1.52%, Amazon up .87%, SoFi is up 1.52%...

All tech firms, all having made recent decisions to expand US based operations and/or invest in US manufacturing.. and/or are heavily involved in AI technologies..

there's some curious things going on right now that are being driven by more than just the tariff issue that everyone is concerned about..

I think you are hinting at my question.

I understand markets are down. My question is, what part of this is individual trading, and what part could be influenced by algorithms that trade based on market trends? Is any part of this influenced by AI?

 

[Field28]

Idk? I heard some fella on the radio this morning that seemed to be pretty knowledgeable about the Stock Market claim that most panic selling is done by people who shouldn't be in the market in the first place.

He stated, it would be like buying a home for 20k, the next week someone offers you 10k for the same home. Would you sell it or keep it was his point.

 

[wesheltonj]

Corporate finance. From London School of Economics.

Started but never finished International Business Law at University of London. I thought about applying to Duke for their LLM in Judicial Studies but at my advance age, not worth the time and effort.

 

[mdwest]

European Union floats ‘zero-for-zero’ tariff resolution to remove industrial fees on US goods: ‘Ready for a good deal’

The European Union has floated a “zero-for-zero” tariff resolution with the Trump administration after 20% import levies were imposed by Washington last week.

nypost.com

I have a feeling this is all going to be over a lot sooner than most expected.. and hopefully with news like this the markets will start to stabilize over the next few days..

the EU is offering 0:0 tariffs on all industrial goods.. this would include rubber, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, plastics, and vehicles among many, many other things..

Im sure everyone wont come together and get a deal inked for a few weeks.. the EU will try to hold on to some other things or try to slip in a few things that Trump isn't going to like.. and Trump will try to strong arm the EU into caputulating on agricultural products or something else before a final deal is reached..

but the fact that 50+ countries are already lined up asking for meetings to negotiate, and the EU is already publicly stating they are ready to go zero for zero on a huge amount of items should reduce some fear in the market and let things settle down a bit.. (you would hope anyway)..

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

watching some of the nuance issues of the stock market today...

DOW is now down about 2.5%.. I'm guessing it will close a little better than the European and Australian markets did today.. but it'll likely drop more than 3% before the lights are turned off this afternoon..

But look at the VIX and look at whats happening with a handful of key tech stocks today..

For those unfamiliar with VIX, its the Chicago exchange that most use to measure volatility and fear in the markets.. it tracks key stocks and whether they are up or down, and then builds trend analysis to determine how to best navigate fear and volatility.. basically you expect when the typical markets like DOW, S&P, etc are up that VIX is down... and that when DOW/S&P etc are down, VIX goes up.. but they are typically pretty much in line with each other (when they are out of line you should be considering why the market is operating more stability than it should or why it is more volatile than it should be..

the VIX is up 9.25%.. which is WAY out of line compared to the negative performance of the S&P and SOW.. basically saying the market is even more unstable and there is more fear driving the market than the loses in the market demonstrate..

then look at some key stocks in the market... while almost everyone is down by significant numbers, NVIDIA is up 1.62%.. LUCID is up 2.85%, Palantir is up 1.52%, Amazon up .87%, SoFi is up 1.52%...

All tech firms, all having made recent decisions to expand US based operations and/or invest in US manufacturing.. and/or are heavily involved in AI technologies..

there's some curious things going on right now that are being driven by more than just the tariff issue that everyone is concerned about..

VIX is currently in the stratosphere. Low volatility is below 20 to low teens.

 

[HookMeUpII]

European Union floats ‘zero-for-zero’ tariff resolution to remove industrial fees on US goods: ‘Ready for a good deal’

The European Union has floated a “zero-for-zero” tariff resolution with the Trump administration after 20% import levies were imposed by Washington last week.

nypost.com

I have a feeling this is all going to be over a lot sooner than most expected.. and hopefully with news like this the markets will start to stabilize over the next few days..

the EU is offering 0:0 tariffs on all industrial goods.. this would include rubber, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, plastics, and vehicles among many, many other things..

Im sure everyone wont come together and get a deal inked for a few weeks.. the EU will try to hold on to some other things or try to slip in a few things that Trump isn't going to like.. and Trump will try to strong arm the EU into caputulating on agricultural products or something else before a final deal is reached..

but the fact that 50+ countries are already lined up asking for meetings to negotiate, and the EU is already publicly stating they are ready to go zero for zero on a huge amount of items should reduce some fear in the market and let things settle down a bit.. (you would hope anyway)..

What you would HOPE for is an extension of good faith on our end. In your example, we work out a deal, parties agree, and then both agree to suspend any tariffs until the deal is inked entirely.

One would hope....at least.

 

[mdwest]

VIX is currently in the stratosphere. Low volatility is below 20 to low teens.

View attachment 677193

yep.. thats what I was saying..

VIX is telling us that the market is even more unstable, more fear driven, etc.. than the dips its taken over the last 3 business days say it is..

Definitely something to watch and be concerned about...

Definitely weird watching global markets today as well.. Western hemisphere markets look like they're all going to close somewhere between about 1.5 and 2% down.. where China closed down more than 9%, most of Europe closed down more than 4%, etc..etc.. be interesting to see how things shake out tomorrow..

 

[HookMeUpII]

VIX is currently in the stratosphere. Low volatility is below 20 to low teens.

View attachment 677193

I'm only 42, however, I've been in the business for every one of those spikes, post-2000.

A lot of rodeos for someone in the business. Funny thing is, every single one of them felt like it was happening the first time.

Just something you never get used to.

 

[mdwest]

What you would HOPE for is an extension of good faith on our end. In your example, we work out a deal, parties agree, and then both agree to suspend any tariffs until the deal is inked entirely.

One would hope....at least.

We can hope for it.. but Im going to guess that doesn't happen..

The US markets are dumping... but at a pace slower than the European markets... Right now its in Europes best interest to move expeditiously.. every day that passes is another day that things get even worse for them than it does for US investors..

Trump will cling to that like stink on a monkeys balls.. Hes not going to want to give any relief or allow for any time to consider much of anything other than coming to the table from the beginning with an exceptionally good offer..

 

[rookhawk]

As a free market guy (caveat: with equitable trade) I hope Trump demands more than is being offered.

The thing I hate about Canadian and EU trade is all the BS trade barriers for the little guys. I also hate getting tariffed on specialty imports. I hope we can wait for a true zero tariff agreement across the board. Things usually not covered in these trade deals would be wine, cheese, spirits, textiles, dairy, meats, grains, etc.

Crush niche protectionist/socialist schemes in the process of a tariff war. We get ALL their goods without tariff, they get all our goods in turn.

Just my take on it because it’s personally irritating as a consumer or small business owner.

What you would HOPE for is an extension of good faith on our end. In your example, we work out a deal, parties agree, and then both agree to suspend any tariffs until the deal is inked entirely.

One would hope....at least.