What is the future of the fine firearms market

[Captain Munro]

35 years old here and I am holding the line for walnut stocks and blued steel! Even if I can't afford a double or a high grade bolt gun. Black plastic has its place, but it is not a priority for me.

 

[spotnspook]

None of what I am about to say regards the high end of the fine firearms market as I think there will always be a strong market at the highest levels. Also understand that is coming from a millennial, so my life experiences may be vastly different than others, I was in middle school for 9/11, entered the work force at the height of the global financial bailout, lived through Obamas gun runs and healthcare fiasco, saw the calm of the Trump era and the shortages of the pandemic. I used to shoot a lot of milsurp before it was all burned up at machinegun shoots because it was CHEAP, ammo was sub 10c/rd and guns could be had for under $100. I've seen that ammo market now essentially dry up and guns quadruple.

How has this molded my preferences in equipment? I tend to run the most practical things I can. I have shot the same first generation Super Black Eagle for nearly 20 years because it is solid reliable and effective, it is the only "sporting" shotgun I use. For rifles I use modern semi autos, and have used an AR15 in 6.5 Grendel for game since I built it and no other rifle for hunting. Yes I may have a collection but for the most part they are all overly practical modern arms. They are tools, they can get rained on, have a dirty bore, get dropped and knocked, and don't require a suede case for transport and a can of oil on standby.

Now for my gripe I guess. We all know how over inflated gun show and auction prices can be. But it seems all I see locally is people trying to hock equipment for the next Indian uprising. You will never see me accumulating an assortment of single action revolvers and leverguns. And as much as I would maybe like a Garand to play with I am too lazy to jump through the CMP hoops and I am not paying 1200-1500 for a CMP rifle someone who is exploiting the CMP system is trying to flip. Don't get my started on Model 12s, why on earth would anyone want a model 12 vs my used Benelli other than some lost sense of nostalgia? It is blued not parked, pump action, has no vent rib, probably won't like steel shot, a 2 3/4" chamber, and has an atrocious amount of drop in the stock. And yet Model 12s seem to bring decent money at every auction and are always prominently featured in the auction flyers as if they are desirable. To whom? My guess is there is closets full of them scattered over the country side. As far as points 4&5, where are they all going to go someday? Not here.

 

[Odinsraven]

I have racks of Parker Hale 243 270 7x57 6.5x55 that are as new my customers ask for 6.5 creedmoor

The large calibre has died in Europe and I am uncertain it will recover

As a dealer I have a perspective... and there is no recovery

Purchased the other day a decent 550 cz 9.3x62 virtually unfired for 300 usd

 

[John Telford]

The trend over the few years is that any collectable / fine rifle has held at least a 15% per annum growth. Some years it may be more some less but on average the growth rate is maintained. Factors to consider are cost to replicate and scarcity of materials and workmanship.
What makes a collectable is open for debate but most pre war rifle is a safe bet.

 

[Odinsraven]

Saldy cheap money has dried up the top of the range is more aspiration than realistic

 

[93marlin]

I venture to say "Nitro Express" likely means drive through beer store to most these days.

And pot shops!!

 

[Altitude sickness]

They will collect “classic” flip phones

 

[93marlin]

I have racks of Parker Hale 243 270 7x57 6.5x55 that are as new my customers ask for 6.5 creedmoor

The large calibre has died in Europe and I am uncertain it will recover

As a dealer I have a perspective... and there is no recovery

Purchased the other day a decent 550 cz 9.3x62 virtually unfired for 300 usd

I for one, would love to find a 9.3x62 at anything under $1000usd

 

[leslie hetrick]

i have sold over a hundred milsurps in the last year that i bought years ago and had stored in my celler in crateds only opened by me to inspect them for condition.. the first gun show i took two cases to were sold out before the show opened, most of the rifles sold for 10-12 times what i paid for them. when i bought the rifles i always picked the best one i could find. i sold one inland m1 carbine in the unopened DCM box dated aug-1963 for 2500.00 that i paid less than 300.00 to the first man who looked at it, with several other men waiting for him to lay in down. the milsurp market has been crazy in the last several years.

 

[sierraone]

35 years old here and I am holding the line for walnut stocks and blued steel! Even if I can't afford a double or a high grade bolt gun. Black plastic has its place, but it is not a priority for me.

35 years old here and I am holding the line for walnut stocks and blued steel! Even if I can't afford a double or a high grade bolt gun. Black plastic has its place, (just not here) but it is not a priority for me.

 

[Altitude sickness]

How old were those guys that bought your Military surplus rifles

 

[Nevada Mike]

I recall when a Winchester Model 70 Standard Rifle was $149.99 (MSRP). What's it worth today?

Shotguns have done better in ROI. A&F sold hand made side lock Westley Richards SxS guns starting at $900. Purdey, Boss, and H&H strated at $2800. If you bought one new, what's it worth today?

I think there will always be a market for quality, but with today's inflation the best I hope for is to stay even... which is better than having cash.

 

[leslie hetrick]

mostly younger males(that seemed to have more money), some to older collectors to fill in small gaps in their collections and a few to military reinactors.

 

[BigGame]

Still trying to figure out why this is posted in the classified section?

 

[CoElkHunter]

The fine firearm market is very strong right now. It gets stronger in some ways during a dire, disastrous economy if you don't buy lousy guns. (I'll define that later)

In good economies (like the present 10 years), demand drives up the price of new fine guns. This provides further support for the value of secondary market fine guns as their replacement costs continue to climb.

In lousy economies like 2008, there wasn't much in the realm of good guns on the market. It took 2-3 years of a crap economy to put enough financial pressure on the affluent to divest themselves of super premium best guns. In 2012 there were no less than 5-7 Westley Richards take down mausers on the market and at least 10 rigby 275s at a time. But once the economy improved, crap guns and limited supply was all that was available.

Right now for example, the guns that are coming through Holt's auction in London are just awful. Not a lot of stunning examples, just tired guns, oddly configured guns, and common caliber guns.

An excellent investment grade gun defined: Limited supply. Strong demand. Ideally a gun that is still in production to prop up the utility price for the person that isn't a collector but is contemplating a new best gun, but compromises into a vintage best gun of similar configuraiton. That's the best case scenario, when collectors want a gun, and so do non-collectors because its cheaper than buying new. Examples: Purdeys, Hollands, Westleys, Heyms, MacNaughtons, Dicksons, Hartman and Weis, Dakotas.

A lousy gun is a slice-in-time nostalgia gun that caters to a collector longing for their youth. I'm not a greatest generation or baby boomer, (I'm Gen X) so I didn't grow up with Cowboys and Indians fantasies. The elderly collectors are fixed-income pensioners, and they've amassed huge troves of Parkers (and their dreadfully and bizarrely priced Japanese replicas), Colts, old S&Ws, and lugers. Those guns are going to take a bloodbath, they just aren't worth as much or coveted as much by Gen X and Gen Y that have the working disposable incomes to justify such purchases.


But a best gun that has a contemporary demand? Those are going to do great.

Vintage Dakota for $12000 versus an identical parkwest for $17,000+? No brainer.

Vintage Boss 20 bore side by side for $30,000 versus a new one for $150,000? No brainer.

Vintage Grant or Lang for $15,000, versus a remanufactured one from AG&L for $60,000? No brainer.

Vintage Winchester Model 21 for $6000 versus a CSMC reproduction for $20,000? No brainer.

Vintage Westley Richards 318 for $8000-$12,000 versus a new one for $60,000? No brainer.

Vintage 1990s Heym Double Rifle for $15,000-$40,000 versus a new identical one for $28,000-$90,000? No brainer.

Vintage Hartman & Weis magazine rifle for $30,000-$40,000 versus a new one for $75,000? No brainer.

I appreciate your analysis, but you're preaching to the one percent crowd which is mostly the boomers who are dying off and those that aren't retired yet and not on a drastically reduced income for discretionary spending. The vast majority of Gen Xers, Millenials, Z and now Alpha, have no desire or the funds to even afford a high dollar firearm. I went into a local super large independent gun store yesterday. Out of HUNDREDS of ALL their rifles including mostly bolt actions for sale, there were exactly 10 with wooden stocks and six of those were Mossbergs. And almost every synthetic stock was camouflaged. Welcome to the reality of the majority of the firearm buying public's tastes in 2023. Sad.

 

[rookhawk]

I appreciate your analysis, but you're preaching to the one percent crowd which is mostly the boomers who are dying off and those that aren't retired yet and not on a drastically reduced income for discretionary spending. The vast majority of Gen Xers, Millenials, Z and now Alpha, have no desire or the funds to even afford a high dollar firearm. I went into a local super large independent gun store yesterday. Out of HUNDREDS of ALL their rifles including mostly bolt actions for sale, there were exactly 10 with wooden stocks and six of those were Mossbergs. And almost every synthetic stock was camouflaged. Welcome to the reality of the majority of the firearm buying public's tastes in 2023. Sad.

I agree its sad, but its sad by a choice. Gen Y, Gen Z, and Alpha are fairly soulless generations. They rent their apartments. They rent their cars. They rent their furniture. They relish experiences, but think nothing of tradition or hereditary wealth. (Most thinking humans are parasites, having no personal intention of breeding) Fine guns are a discriminating taste and always have been. The aforementioned 3 generations were at the “cash-for-gold” strip mall locations melting down the families holocaust jewelery back in 2008. No appreciation for aesthetic. No Appreciation that their tattoos and piercings preclude their admission into the clubs their grandparents spent 70 years climbing to access, etc.

But as it pertains to guns, even expensive guns aren’t fine guns. I find that many here and elsewhere think that $5000 To $15,000 guns automatically equate to fine guns. No. Not true. If it’s made of Dural or aluminum, or if it’s carbon fiber and laminate, it is not a fine gun. It’s technology, and in ten years that $15,000 purchase (e.g. Gunwerks) is nothing but outdated equivelant of a windows 95’ computer. Fine best guns bought right will always hold or grow their value. Knowing the difference between garbage and gems has been a barrier for the poor and for the nouveau riche for the past 100 years.

You might find this post pompous and arrogant, but I assure you I was born poorer and more classless than the reader. Being poor and classless is an involuntary choice until you reach the age of majority, buying classless and poor-quality guns thereafter is a choice. Please review the “Good gun deals this week” thread for a myriad of examples of high-quality investment grade guns that were purchased for LESS than worthless plastic guns for examples.

 

[CoElkHunter]

I agree its sad, but its sad by a choice. Gen Y, Gen Z, and Alpha are fairly soulless generations. They rent their apartments. They rent their cars. They rent their furniture. They relish experiences, but think nothing of tradition or hereditary wealth. (Most thinking humans are parasites, having no personal intention of breeding) Fine guns are a discriminating taste and always have been. The aforementioned 3 generations were at the “cash-for-gold” strip mall locations melting down the families holocaust jewelery back in 2008. No appreciation for aesthetic. No Appreciation that their tattoos and piercings preclude their admission into the clubs their grandparents spent 70 years climbing to access, etc.

But as it pertains to guns, even expensive guns aren’t fine guns. I find that many here and elsewhere think that $5000 To $15,000 guns automatically equate to fine guns. No. Not true. If it’s made of Dural or aluminum, or if it’s carbon fiber and laminate, it is not a fine gun. It’s technology, and in ten years that $15,000 purchase (e.g. Gunwerks) is nothing but outdated equivelant of a windows 95’ computer. Fine best guns bought right will always hold or grow their value. Knowing the difference between garbage and gems has been a barrier for the poor and for the nouveau riche for the past 100 years.

You might find this post pompous and arrogant, but I assure you I was born poorer and more classless than the reader. Being poor and classless is an involuntary choice until you reach the age of majority, buying classless and poor-quality guns thereafter is a choice. Please review the “Good gun deals this week” thread for a myriad of examples of high-quality investment grade guns that were purchased for LESS than worthless plastic guns for examples.

I don't think your post here and previous posts on your expertise regarding fine firearms are arrogant or pompous at all. I absolutely LOVE your and the other experts here on AH discerning opinions on firearms and their values. Other items too such as watches. For ME personally, it's like going to a classic muscle car show and listening to the history, performance and value of the autos I'm gawking at. It would be cool to maybe drive one around the block or shoot a fine rifle at the range, but I have no real desire to own one. That doesn't mean I don't sincerely appreciate the fact that they still do exist and are used or could be used for their intended purpose. I think it's absolutely fantastic for the owners of fine cars, firearms, watches, art, etc., to "just have them" for everyone else that can't afford them to appreciate their history and fine quality.

 

[KCSafari]

Good points from everyone. I was fortunate to hunt in Africa a lot and I know the deep tradition that comes with that. I do feel out of place when my friends group show up with their plastic stocks and the “Gun of the Season”. I love my Dakota 76’s/Custom Mausers and you can’t help but think of art and craftsmanship when running your hands over them. As I am 32 years old I can agree that the retirement generation has such beautiful rifles but very few of my generation wants or can afford them.

 

[ILDRHNTR]

Enjoying all of your thoughts and expertise.

I second that. Very interesting subject.

 

[rigbymauser]

Lots of fine guns doesn`t move. I have seen a nice Purdey dr in .400 Purdey I would love to own however the seller wants some + 40Ks for it which is what that is. Its been for sale for over a year(might even two years). However If I buy it and one day want to sell. How long would it take me to sell??..even for half the price?.. The message is. If one buys for investment alone one might have to find another marked as prices on vintage "steel" is a hard marked. If one buys with the passion of owning a certain thing then he shouldn`t bee looking for a return other than joy-of-ownership.