Politics

[Red Leg]

This is a pretty big deal. For the last few cycles Nate Silver and his 538 analysis was the golden boy for democrat polling. In '23 he was essentially dumped by Disney who would not meet his contract demands. His analysis is not only very accurate, but unlike typical aggradation polling is based on gaming theory. His model is proprietary and he is now providing updates and forecasts independently. Not surprisingly, they differ from the current analysis at 538.

Silver released this today. It will give the Harris camp vapors. Whatever else, the DNC bounce wasn't. Note the popular vote prediction is still in Harris's favor. Were Trump to win that it would quell some of the post election media driven discord.

 

[sestoppelman]

Do some research on him and you will understand why he is not one of my heroes. BUT, that is a wonderful thing to own.

I know a bit about him and what some thought of him, but he did have quite a distinguished and highly decorated career, controversies aside.

 

[Safari Dave]

Apparently the dad bought the AR for the boy, after the FBI interview and was in possession of it all this time.
I read that GA law has no minimum age for possession of a rifle, but there may be other things going on here, but either way, dad is being charged.

As a Georgia father, I'm in 100% agreement that the father should be charged to the maximum extent of the law.

Anybody that thinks his 14 year old psychopathic son needs to have a high capacity semi-auto is a fool, and should spend the rest of his life behind bars.

 

[LivingTheDream]

This is a pretty big deal. For the last few cycles Nate Silver and his 538 analysis was the golden boy for democrat polling. In '23 he was essentially dumped by Disney who would not meet his contract demands. His analysis is not only very accurate, but unlike typical aggradation polling is based on gaming theory. His model is proprietary and he is now providing updates and forecasts independently. Not surprisingly, they differ from the current analysis at 538.

Silver released this today. It will give the Harris camp vapors. Whatever else, the DNC bounce wasn't. Note the popular vote prediction is still in Harris's favor. Were Trump to win that it would quell some of the post election media driven discord.


View attachment 631826

In watching the betting markets, I feel like I could have predicted there would be no DNC bounce. The betting markets swung to Trump while the DNC was on going.

And though not being reported or even tracked. In conversations I am having and comments I am seeing from Males under the age of 30, Kamala has a youth problem as well.

 

[Altitude sickness]

In watching the betting markets, I feel like I could have predicted there would be no DNC bounce. The betting markets swung to Trump while the DNC was on going.

And though not being reported or even tracked. In conversations I am having and comments I am seeing from Males under the age of 30, Kamala has a youth problem as well.

I will still wager towards your favorite rifle.

That Trump will never sit at the R. Desk again.

 

[Doubleplay]

Betting odds are slightly favoring Harris.
I wonder what they base their predictions on?

 

[Altitude sickness]

They know we are very near the 45% of voters wanting cradle to grave government oversight and care. The tipping point needed for them to never lose another election is inching closer every four years.

Some smart people stated. (once the electorate votes themselves coin from the government purse there is no turning back). Loosely translated

 

[Brent in Az]

Not sure where you guys are getting the betting polls from?

 

[LivingTheDream]

I will still wager towards your favorite rifle.

That Trump will never sit at the R. Desk again.

Too soon to take this bet, I actually think the debate is not going to go well for DJT.

In a world where viral clips rule over actually policy, I am betting she gets some rehearsed line out there and he says something stupid.

She will also say something stupid however it will only get played in a right wing echo chamber.

Just the reality of the world we live in.

 

[Tanks]

Too soon to take this bet, I actually think the debate is not going to go well for DJT.

In a world where viral clips rule over actually policy, I am betting she gets some rehearsed line out there and he says something stupid.

...

Reason she wants mikes on:

 

[rookhawk]

Hunter Biden changing his plea to guilty in tax evasion case to avoid tax trial.
Sweetheart plea deal, with a future Daddy pardon or commutation?
Some are predicting 1-3 years in prison.

Remember Murphy's Law?

Hunter is taking the guilty plea ASAP so he can be sentenced as soon as possible so daddy can issue a presidential pardon. Murphy suggests that Biden will die or be removed from office before he can issue a pardon under a cruel twist of fate.

The approach is so transparent, all we can do is watch and wait for karma to activate.

 

[BSO Dave]

In a world where viral clips rule over actually policy, I am betting she gets some rehearsed line out there and he says something stupid.

She will also say something stupid however it will only get played in a right wing echo chamber.

Just the reality of the world we live in.

I agree completely with your contention that in these debates, clips of the one-liners leave more of a lasting impression than actually policy. I have actually made that argument myself here many times.

What I don't agree with is that it will work against Trump... I certainly didn't in the last debate, where Trump capitalized on all of Brandon's blunders by merely calmly pointing out the nonsense he was spewing... It was so painfully obvious in that debate, the MSM was even taken by surprise and could not save him... As hard as it is to believe that it's even posssible, she is an even bigger idiot than Brandon without the excuse of dementia... My prediction is that her rehearsed attempts at baiting Trump will fail, and his unrehearsed rebuttals to her nonsense and hyperbole will prevail for him... I guess we will see who is right on Tuesday...

 

[LivingTheDream]

I agree completely with your contention that in these debates, clips of the one-liners leave more of a lasting impression than actually policy. I have actually made that argument myself here many times.

What I don't agree with is that it will work against Trump... I certainly didn't in the last debate, where Trump capitalized on all of Brandon's blunders by merely calmly pointing out the nonsense he was spewing... It was so painfully obvious in that debate, the MSM was even taken by surprise and could not save him... As hard as it is to believe that it's even posssible, she is an even bigger idiot than Brandon without the excuse of dementia... My prediction is that her rehearsed attempts at baiting Trump will fail, and his unrehearsed rebuttals to her nonsense and hyperbole will prevail for him... I guess we will see who is right on Tuesday...

I would argue that it wasn't what Biden said, it was how he said it. Those still shots of his mouth hanging open and glazed eyes were what ended it.

 

[deewayne2003]

I would argue that it wasn't what Biden said, it was how he said it. Those still shots of his mouth hanging open and glazed eyes were what ended it.

The most damaging part of that debate was when Trump said….

“I don’t know what he just said and I think he doesn’t know either.”

That was the straw that broke the camels back and every blank stare from then on was another shovel full of dirt backfilling his grave.

 

[sestoppelman]

I would argue that it wasn't what Biden said, it was how he said it. Those still shots of his mouth hanging open and glazed eyes were what ended it.

Harris is obviously going to do better than that and she has built in advantages and will probably do well or at least be perceived to be the winner of the debate when it happens.
I hate these debates so wont be watching. I didnt watch the Biden debate either.

 

[Brent in Az]

Kamala is in Pennsylvania for 5 days doing debate prep, so no worries.
The media lapdogs have already declared her the winner of the debate

 

[LivingTheDream]

Kamala is in Pennsylvania for 5 days doing debate prep, so no worries.
The media lapdogs have already declared her the winner of the debate

I actually think that is a bad thing for her. She doesn't do well on her feet, and rehearsing lines isn't the solution. I think she will also get in her own head and create some epic word salads. But I doubt outside of a few news outlets they will get much air time.

 

[Red Leg]

It is somewhat reassuring to see even a partisan democrat do the right thing. This eliminates an enormous political hurdle for Trump.

Donald Trump criminal sentencing delayed until after election

Justice Merchan to sentence Republican candidate in hush-money trial on 26 November, citing "unique" circumstances.

www.bbc.com

 

[Red Leg]

I may be wrong, but I think I am finally sensing some skepticism slipping into the MSM's coverage of the Joy and Vibe campaign. I would be curious of @Saul 's reaction, but this may be the most preposterous answer to a CNN question that I have ever heard.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1831767342411575693

 

[CJW]

Reason she wants mikes on:

I hope Trump walks out in a t shirt with that picture and an "I'm speaking" caption.