Rasmussen accounts for or over samples republican votes at a higher rate than any of the other large polls. The two that caught my attention are the most recent Fox and TIPP polls which also show a similar swing in the national vote. I should add, while Fox news is despised by the left, left leaning pollsters such a Slate and 538 consider Fox polling among the least biased.
Powerful Momentum Shift Reverses the Race
tippinsights.com
If these polls are indeed accurate and if they hold through the voting cycle (voting has actually begun almost everywhere), then Trump is looking very good indeed. Due to the "density" of democrats in highly populated states on the coasts, republicans have a bit of an electoral college advantage. Slate's analysis says that a democrat needs to win the popular vote by +2-3% to have a greater than 50% chance to win the election. Hillary, for instance won the popular vote by around +2 % and lost, while Biden won by nearly 5% and won.
Again, Slate's analysis suggests a +2 % popular vote republican result in the election creates a 99.8 % likelihood of a republican victory in the electoral college. If any of the undercounting bias from the last to presidential elections remains, then Trump, at least over the last few days, is looking really good.
A final thing about polls, Slate, 538, and RCP (quoted a lot by the press) use algorithms and historical accuracy to weight various polls and then produce an average. Because they reflect polls over a period of time, they are a lagging indicator and will be slower at picking up changes in momentum - and in fairness also less likely to being influenced by bumps caused by debates and the like.
Polymarket is the major betting site on the election. It is a leading indicator because it reflects the general feeling of the state of the race at the instant the bets are made. As of this morning Polymarket has Trump over Harris as the likely winner with odds of 63.9% to 36.4%. Some commentators and influencers on the left are so upset over these numbers that a conspiracy theory has developed that foreign money is flowing into the site to make Trump look like he is doing better than he is.
2024 Presidential Election Predictions. Trust markets, not presidential polls. Live and accurate forecasts by the world's largest prediction market.
polymarket.com
I would suggest the campaign internals have been showing a similar trend for a while which explains much of the Harris campaign's flailing for footing over the last couple of weeks.
