Politics

[375 Ruger Fan]

Domino theory was a dubious at best theory 60 years ago and it hasn’t aged well.
Within three years of Saigon falling, the Vietnamese were in a shooting war with China.

This quote I think captures a good historical perspective on the domino theory.

"In the end, what’s probably most important about the Domino Theory was not its accuracy, but the hold it had over the US foreign policy establishment through at least four Presidential administrations. The theory might have saved Western Europe from Communism by inspiring NATO and the Marshall Plan. It also protected Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea from Communist takeover. But, the theory’s run of success ended in Vietnam."

 

[Red Leg]

Would you rather have Kamala in charge and just keep pumping US taxpayer money to Ukraine with no results?

No. But, I would rather have someone who understood there is no alignment between Russia's stated strategic goals (essentially recreation of the Soviet Empire in Eastern Europe) and those of my country - a president who would provide sufficient aid in sufficient quantity that would force Putin to the negotiating table with conditions favorable to the West. Apparently the leader of neither party is capable of that.

 

[bowjijohn]

Today I was talking to an old friend who is a joint owner of one of the Coutadas

Whilst chatting I was surprised to find myself saying that I feel a similar disquiet now, here in the UK, that we felt in Rhodesia in the late 70s

He and I are of the opinion that the political elites of the EU (and UK) are unable to grasp the enormity of what Trump is telling them

Let me be clear that I believe that we are on the cusp of global catastrophe

Not that Trump (via Vance) is requiring unacceptable change from the EU

But that they (the EU leadership) are incapable of grasping what what is required, let alone delivering it

But

And it is a big but

If Trump is turning his back on NATO and doing deals with Putin it will bite him, you and me on the arse

 

[deewayne2003]

So a plane crashes in Canada and again Trump is not only responsible for the crash but also for high egg prices......

 

[Lone Star Bluegrass]

Something like this, even the Civil War, has never occurred in this country.

So, let's put it in comparative terms. Imagine the United States under the same conditions. China has invaded the West Coast. We are engaged in a peer to peer ground war. China occupies 20% of the country and we are suffering roughly 4,000 - 5,000 casualties a day (proportional losses against our population). Every major population center is under periodic conventional bombardment resulting in a couple of thousand civilian deaths a week. Power and water only work periodically across large swaths of the country. Two thirds of the population of California, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, and Nevada are refugees scattered through the remainder of the country. It would impossible to hold an election in such conditions. We too, should we have the will and courage to continue to fight like the Ukrainians have, would be under martial law for the duration.

It is why I despise people like Tucker Carlson et al who condemn Zelynsky for not holding elections. Either they are ignorant, or perhaps for political reasons, they assume we are.

I appreciate the hypothetical comparison, but I’m more curious about the domestic perspective. Is the population just war weary and ready to sue for peace? Is Z perceived as corrupt? Is there enough of an opposition party that favors a more cordial alignment with Russia? All the above?

I got it, Tucker bad..doo dah, doo dah… but the rest of the western media portrays Zelensky in an almost universally favorable light. Is that an inflated image that doesn’t accurately reflect the sentiment of the majority of Ukrainians?

 

[Brent in Az]

Per Brietbart

 

[Red Leg]

I appreciate the hypothetical comparison, but I’m more curious about the domestic perspective. Is the population just war weary and ready to sue for peace? Is Z perceived as corrupt? Is there enough of an opposition party that favors a more cordial alignment with Russia? All the above?

I got it, Tucker bad..doo dah, doo dah… but the rest of the western media portrays Zelensky in an almost universally favorable light. Is that an inflated image that doesn’t accurately reflect the sentiment of the majority of Ukrainians?

I would suggest that the answer to your question is being played out on the battlefield daily. Ukraine is fighting valiantly for its right to exist. Those are men and women, the vast majority of whom are volunteers, voting with their lives. Sure they are weary of the war. But surveys since 2023 tend to reflect around 55-60% want to fight on until all occupied territories are liberated (probably impossible) while 40% want compromise and a end to the war. I doubt 10% would agree to giving up all of what Russia currently occupies.

 

[flatwater bill]

"....anyone who wants the old Soviet Union back has no brain"......Vlad. Putin. (what? didn't get on CNN)
The usual propaganda scare tactics say otherwise. Without an enemy, NATO has no reason to exist, no reason to keep taking those US dollars. And propaganda only goes ONE way. The USAID scandal has shown that we are paying 7000 journalists around the World, and 200 news outlets. We control almost ALL of the propaganda. Don't always fall for it. Don't listen to those who's stock portfolio is dependent upon the war. That's a no brainer. Or maybe you want to "support Ukraine" by paying another $21 million to send their supermodels to the fashion shows in Paris, London and New York? I don't. (Ya, told at Senate hearing).......our actions have been shameful, disgusting....and most importantly, harmful to ALL countries involved. .....fortunately, our President and VP believe that too................FWB

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

Interesting video on the Delta airlines crash in Toronto. At 9:30 into the video, shows what appears to be a hard landing, collapsing the gear and hitting the wing tip.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

 

[Wheels]

Whistleblower says Biden Administration tried to get illegals set up with a Social Security Number. Work to get them set up on SS Disability and get them a US passport. Hopefully the DOJ will look into and prosecute the NGO's and government employees involved in this.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1891895227067269464

 

[Red Leg]

There are three broad categories of refinery; topping, cracking and coking. Topping refineries are the least complex and largely gone. There are two small ones still operating in Alaska I believe.

Cracking refineries can run heavy or
Light crude depending on their metallurgy. However, they have no resid conversion capability so when they run heavy sour they have to make a lot of residues or asphalt.

Coking refineries are the most complex, expensive and profitable. These are designed for heavy sour crudes and have the ability to convert residues/asphalt into crude.

Heavy sour crudes processed in the US are typically from Canada and Venezuela, although some heavier middle eastern crudes do find their way here.

Two of our most important heavy crude refineries are in Wood River, IL and Pine Bend, MN. Wood River takes heavy sour from Venezuela and Canada. Pine Bend processes primarily Canadian crude.

If Canadian crude went overland to the West Coast, these refineries would have a serious problem. They are not configured to profitably run WTI or other lighter crudes. They are also not in the best spot to receive these crudes. What you end up with is a local fuel shortage that has to be made up with pipeline shipments.

Refined products are a global commodity priced by transport from clearing hubs. Our clearing hubs are New York Harbor, Houston, and LA. The major hub this would impact is Houston. It would likely go up relative to the other hubs and the pipeline tariffs would set the price from Houston into the midcontinent. Your guess is as good as mine on what these tariffs might do. They won’t go down.

Now there you go arrogantly showing off your professional life experience.

 

[Altitude sickness]

I thought this is how Shuttle diplomacy worked.

The broker goes to one side first. Ensures they are serious and receives their opening dialogue.

Then schedule a time to get both parties together.

If Biden had kept a dialogue open with the Kremlin then we wouldn’t need to meet with Russia.

We already have the Ukrainian position.

Elections could easily be held during the ceasefire with EU peace keeping troops helping with security.

 

[Datchew]

Not that I trust polls at all... but polling at different times in 2024 show he likely couldn't win another election..

While other polls show he is as popular as ever..


that said, I think something that needs to be noted is.. Zelensky didn't exactly "cancel" an election..

what he did was declare martial law (and did so legally, and in accordance with Ukraines law)..

and Ukraines law is pretty clear.. as long as the country is under martial law, they don't have presidential elections..

So.. to have an election, they would need to change the law, and allow elections to be held while martial law is in place..

Which is not something Ukranians appear to be interested in doing..

So, despite some trying to claim he is wrongfully holding onto power.. and while some people may not like that he still holds the office of the president after his 5 year term has expired.. the fact is he has done nothing wrong or illegal per Ukranian law.. and that at least in the last few reports that I have read, most Ukranians believe he should remain president until the country is released from martial law..

Can Ukraine's Zelenskyy stay in power without an election? – DW – 05/19/2024

Volodymyr Zelenskyy's term as president officially ends on May 20, and a scheduled election in March was postponed due to the ongoing war. Legal experts explain why he can remain in power.

www.dw.com

This is a great point. I wasnt aware it required a law change.

We get a lot of comments about it and how the US doesn't hold elections during wartime which isn't true. We've done it about 5 times if I recall going back to the war of 1812.

It's s popular Tucker Carlson talking point when he's having a go at zelensky but he should look up the details be before he spits out things like that.

Good Intel. Thx.

 

[Altitude sickness]

On the Road Again — Kissinger’s Shuttle Diplomacy – Association for Diplomatic Studies & Training

adst.org

 

[BSO Dave]

lol, I’m not sure even I would dare to go head to head with @WAB on energy topics. You’ll need to show some profound acumen.

I for one am ready to be schooled by you though.

I'm not challenging anyone on the oil business... You don't need to be an "oil expert" to understand the very simple concepts of supply, demand, and speculation especially in regard to how oil and gas prices are set... These are universal economic concepts that apply to most, if not all commodities, and have nothing to do with the intricacies of the oil business per se...

 

[WAB]

I sat on the board of directors for a small O&G exploration firm in Houston for a few years...

Even with that experience/exposure to the O&G industry, I wouldn't begin to remotely consider myself an expert, much less question anything WAG might offer about how the industry works (or doesn't)..

I sat on that board for 2 reasons.. my firm owned a sizeable chunk of the O&G companies stock/equity, and I wanted oversight and the ability to protect our fairly significant investment.. and I brought a good bit of executive leadership and corporate governance experience, where most of the leadership of that firm and the other members of the board were largely scientists, engineers, and O&G sales types..

I read A LOT of material related to O&G during my tenure.. saw a LOT of reports.. and interfaced with a lot of people that really understood how the industry works, why it works the way it does, etc..

But that by no means made me an expert in any way..

I don't think anyone that hasn't worked specifically in that field at a middle management and higher level for a very long time really understands it.. I don't care how much they might understand about micro or macro economics, business in general, etc.. or how much they might have studied/read about the industry...

Its simply far too complicated and way too massive to fully grasp any other way..

That’s what makes this forum so great. We have folks with significant expertise in diverse fields. I truly appreciate what I have been able to learn from other members.

 

[sgt_zim]

There's an odd dynamic going on in Ukraine against the Ukraine Orthodox Church vs the schismatic Orthodox Church of Ukraine. The former is in communion with the Russian Orthodox, and they're in communion with Greek, Antiochian, and the rest of the Eastern Orthodoxy. The state is backing the schismatic church and actively persecuting the UOC, has imprisoned priests and at least 1 metropolitan (bishop). This predates Russia's invasion by at least 3 or 4 years.

I'm not sure Zelensky has a great deal of choice in the matter as there are quite a number of (apparently) USAID-backed NGOs involved in all of that.

The Greek Church used to do a lot of work with Christians In Action starting in the late 40s, I assume there is still some relationship there, or at least there are still strong rumors of it.

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

I'm not challenging anyone on the oil business... You don't need to be an "oil expert" to understand the very simple concepts of supply, demand, and speculation especially in regard to how oil and gas prices are set... These are universal economic concepts that apply to most, if not all commodities, and have nothing to do with the intricacies of the oil business per se...

Don’t need to be an expert poker player to win a hand of card either but it helps.

 

[WAB]

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Now there you go arrogantly showing off your professional life experience.

Now you’re just stirring the pot!