Fully agree with your analysis.
But now the MAGA crowd should understand that now the EU has lost any trust with the USA, (a sad situation for many of us), and that we will reconsider buying US military equipment, as we cannot rely on a supply of spare parts, software updates...
That will hurt the US balance of payments and also mean job losses.
Not good for either side
I think the defense sales argument is a pretty weak one..
in 2024 the US sold $117B in military equipment across the entirety of Europe (both NATO and non NATO nations)... Globally the US sold $318B.. so the European purchases arent a small amount.. they're over 1/3 at the moment..
That said, the majority of defense sales in 2024 were tied to Ukraine related demand (European countries purchasing items to backstock after selling/donating/lending/etc their goods to Ukraine)..
Prior to the war in Ukraine, the entirety of Europe only amounted to about 11% of global military sales annually.. which is still a pretty large number.. but not really that significant so that it would do irrepairable harm to the US defense industry... even if every penny went away, which wont happen..
Its expected that once the war in Ukraine is over, that European purchases would reduce back to pre-war values.. Europe as previously has been mentioned produces its own aircraft, tanks, ships, etc for the most part... so a reduction is already being planned for I am sure by US defense providers (whether there is a good relationship or a poor one, the purchase of materials and supplies would be reducing anyway.. a poor relationship just means it will reduce by a larger value)..
That said, much of what Europe was purchasing prior to the war, Europe will have to continue to purchase whether it likes it or not until they can figure out how to produce certain items for themselves..
For example, the UK owns 250+ nuclear warheads...
Those warheads are worthless however without a delivery system..
100% of the UK's delivery systems are leased from the US (trident missiles) to include all of their targeting, control, and other systems as well as all maintenance, which is conducted by the US..
So unless the UK wants to go non-nuclear, their only option at the moment is to continue to buy from the US.. It would take many years for the UK not only to procure a different system, but to also field it, train on it, and have it fully capable... Trump will have been gone from office long before the UK could manage to accomplish this..
And there will be some European countries that will continue to purchase US military systems whether they believe the relationship is good or bad, simply because it is in that countries strategic interest to do so (which could be driven by a variety of reasons)... There is a reason Germany and other European countries are still buying billions of dollars in oil from Russia every year, despite labeling Russia an enemy and acknowledging Russia is a physical threat to them.. They believe its in their strategic interest to do so.. despite having a bad relationship with the Russians..
There is a reason for example that Egypt just agreed to purchase $5B in US military equipment in December, Pakistan made a $450M purchase in 2022, etc.. even though those countries have had difficult relationships with the US for decades..
Most countries purposefully purchase from several sources for a number of reasons.. for example Brazil buys from the US, France, Germany, and Russia (among others)... Kuwait buys from all members of the UN Security Council for a very specific reason, etc..etc..