Politics

[Brent in Az]

Liberation day......the start of the economic rebuild.

So much winning!

No doubt Wall Street will be drinking heavily.

 

[Randy F]

I have good friends from there, think of it this way.....

Madison is to Wisconsin as Austin is to Texas...... A little blue nipple in a big red tit!

Only Texas has much more population outside its urban centers.

Exacty. I live here. You get close to Madison or most any college town and your body just starts to shake it's head and rolls it's eye's. Completely involuntary.

 

[Tamboti]

Liberation day......the start of the economic rebuild.

So much winning!

No doubt Wall Street will be drinking heavily.

Only Trump is winning.

 

[Brent in Az]

Only Trump is winning.
View attachment 676161

If Trump is living rent free in your head, I would agree. Fortunately, there seems to be plenty of room.

 

[Altitude sickness]

Wisconsin confuses me.

Votes to keep its Supreme Court liberal..

While at the same time votes to institute a voter ID requirement (a very conservative ideal)..

Wisconsin and Michigan are going more and more liberal.

I could be wrong. I’m guessing the voter ID proposal passed because it required the voter to read and comprehend a lengthy proposition at the bottom of the ballet.

 

[Red Leg]

Liberation day......the start of the economic rebuild.

So much winning!

No doubt Wall Street will be drinking heavily.

If the tariffs are as universal as the previews indicate, the announcement could also tank the Street, or all the noise over the last two months could have baked it in. The Dow is flat today, so we'll see.

What is absolutely certain is that the cost of virtually every assembled product in this country will go up in price. That is essentially a huge sales tax on everyone. For instance domestic automobile producers are suggesting as much as $4k a vehicle increase because of the foreign components in their vehicles.

The very high stakes bet the administration is making is that the income from tariffs will offset loss of revenue from taxes, and as @mdwest noted, those reduced taxes will drive economic activity eventually resulting in higher wages. The problem for the administration will be the timing of the macro-economic impressions within the electorate. If what they are seeing is renewed inflation and a dramatically rising consumer price index, we won't have to worry about the second half of the Trump term. If, on the other hand, the impression is an economy that is accelerating in which the voter feels personal benefit, then next year could be a positive referendum on the administration.

Pseudo catchy phrases like Liberation Day will appeal to the uncritical 30% (those valedictorians in the meme for instance). The majority of voters will vote what they see in their checkbook.

I frankly wish I understood what Trump's strategic end state is. In one press conference he is talking about all the money in the world flowing into the country due to tariffs. At the next, he is talking about removing barriers to trade by using tariffs as a weapon. Those are two diametrically conflicted outcomes.

 

[Rocked and Loaded]

Most meaningful legislation requires a 2/3's vote in the senate to overcome a minority filibuster. The republicans are quite a ways from such a super majority. There is a work around called "reconciliation" which is a budget tool, created under the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, that enables Congress to advance specific fiscal policies by bypassing the Senate’s usual 60-vote filibuster threshold, requiring only a simple majority (51 votes) to pass. Normally it can only be used once or twice in a session. There is often a great deal of debate over the "fiscal" nature of many of the items crammed into such a bill.

What’s ironic is that leaning on the WH when their candidate is in office has become a necessity for both parties since polarization has made it almost impossible for either party to pass their most important policy goals via legislation. This also means a lot of those same goals get rolled back as soon as the president changes.

It’s also led to both parties ceding more power to the executive while they are in power which they immediately regret the moment they lose the WH. Of course they never regret it enough to roll it back after they return to power.

We’re in a feedback loop now with both parties to blame and I’m not sure where it ends.

 

[fourfive8]

Here’s the answer. Tax our own economy into prosperity to teach Putin a lesson

 

[Brent in Az]

If the tariffs are as universal as the previews indicate, the announcement could also tank the Street, or all the noise over the last two months could have baked it in. The Dow is flat today, so we'll see.

What is absolutely certain is that the cost of virtually every assembled product in this country will go up in price. That is essentially a huge sales tax on everyone. For instance domestic automobile producers are suggesting as much as $4k a vehicle increase because of the foreign components in their vehicles.

The very high stakes bet the administration is making is that the income from tariffs will offset loss of revenue from taxes, and as @mdwest noted, those reduced taxes will drive economic activity eventually resulting in higher wages. The problem for the administration will be the timing of the macro-economic impressions within the electorate. If what they are seeing is renewed inflation and a dramatically rising consumer price index, we won't have to worry about the second half of the Trump term. If, on the other hand, the impression is an economy that is accelerating in which the voter feels personal benefit, then next year could be a positive referendum on the administration.

Pseudo catchy phrases like Liberation Day will appeal to the uncritical 30% (those valedictorians in the meme for instance). The majority of voters will vote what they see in their checkbook.

I frankly wish I understood what Trump's strategic end state is. In one press conference he is talking about all the money in the world flowing into the country due to tariffs. At the next, he is talking about removing barriers to trade by using tariffs as a weapon. Those are two diametrically conflicted outcomes.

A lot of "If"s" in that comment.

Fortunately, I'm not one of the anti Trump forum cronies that takes everything you post as gospel. People that I feel would rather see Trump fail, then to see America succeed.
I'm giving the man a chance, and will wait patiently on the long term positive outcome. Despite Trumps bluster, he can't fix everything in one day. Less then 3 months in office, with lots of work to be done for everything to shake out.
I'm sure there will be some failures along the way, but I've never seen a president in my lifetime get everything right, especially considering the dumpster fire of the last 4 years as a prime example of the worst.

I'll roll the dice on a Trump economic rebound, vs. the social and economic decline under a Democrat administration.

 

[Altitude sickness]

I’ll take a stab at playing devils advocate for the tariffs.

Most politically savvy administrations put forth proposals and legislation that benefit the administration in their 4 year term. Delaying the pain 10 years down the road .

This is the first time I’ve ever heard of an administration putting the Pain upfront to reap benefits for the next few generations.

Usually politicians are too shortsighted, self-serving and lazy to cause this much turmoil during their own term.

Most choose one big ticket item and then coast. Not wanting to make waves. Getting re-elected being more important than the economic health of the country.

Unfortunately, this recalibration needs to happen at some point, with spending, entitlements, but sadly, nobody wants to deal with it.

This would all go away if every nation would just bring their tariffs down to the exact amount they get charged by the US. Or pay their employees a fraction of the US employee wage. Equalization of wages will also bring the wages and standard of living up across the globe if those manufacturers choose to keep building their product overseas and just pay the tariff. this is what democracy does. lifts the Third World out of poverty

perhaps Trump should have just coasted for four years doing very little. Only focusing on getting JD Vance get elected.

 

[fourfive8]

I Spartacus ties up Senate floor for 25 hours doing the peoples’ work

 

[Tundra Tiger]

Brent, credit where credit is due: that's one of your better posts, IMHO. And I'm not being sarcastic, I mean it. That said, I don't completely agree, though I respect how you laid out your position.

"will wait patiently on the long term positive outcome."

The problem I see with that is he doesn't really have a long term; he has until the mid-terms, so things need to shake out sooner rather than later.

Also, some of us don't take what Red Leg (or anyone else) says as gospel, but we do recognize folks who have more experience with certain matters than we do, and we do tend to agree with folks whose political ideologies more closely align with our own. In my case Red Leg's worldview with regards to our nation's foreign and domestic affairs lines up might close with my own, and he is often more articulate than me in giving voice to those views. If that puts me in a "crony" category, I'm good with it.

 

[deewayne2003]

Only Trump is winning.
View attachment 676161

How does it feel knowing this man has more control over your future for the next 3.75 years than any European head of state could dream of?

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

Brent, credit where credit is due: that's one of your better posts, IMHO. And I'm not being sarcastic, I mean it. That said, I don't completely agree, though I respect how you laid out your position.

"will wait patiently on the long term positive outcome."

The problem I see with that is he doesn't really have a long term; he has until the mid-terms, so things need to shake out sooner rather than later.

Also, some of us don't take what Red Leg (or anyone else) says as gospel, but we do recognize folks who have more experience with certain matters than we do, and we do tend to agree with folks whose political ideologies more closely align with our own. In my case Red Leg's worldview with regards to our nation's foreign and domestic affairs lines up might close with my own, and he is often more articulate than me in giving voice to those views. If that puts me in a "crony" category, I'm good with it.

Hear hear , he also has the prerequisite number of rotations around the sun so as to not be dismissed out of hand like certain members are known to do (Brent)

 

[Rocked and Loaded]

I Spartacus ties up Senate floor for 25 hours doing the peoples’ work

He’s setting up for his 2028 run, just like Newsome with his podcast.

 

[Red Leg]

A lot of "If"s" in that comment.

Fortunately, I'm not one of the anti Trump forum cronies that takes everything you post as gospel. People that I feel would rather see Trump fail, then to see America succeed.
I'm giving the man a chance, and will wait patiently on the long term positive outcome. Despite Trumps bluster, he can't fix everything in one day. Less then 3 months in office, with lots of work to be done for everything to shake out.
I'm sure there will be some failures along the way, but I've never seen a president in my lifetime get everything right, especially considering the dumpster fire of the last 4 years as a prime example of the worst.

I'll roll the dice on a Trump economic rebound, vs. the social and economic decline under a Democrat administration.

I’ll take a stab at playing devils advocate for the tariffs.

Most politically savvy administrations put forth proposals and legislation that benefit the administration in their 4 year term. Delaying the pain 10 years down the road .

This is the first time I’ve ever heard of an administration putting the Pain upfront to reap benefits for the next few generations.

Usually politicians are too shortsighted, self-serving and lazy to cause this much turmoil during their own term.

Most choose one big ticket item and then coast. Not wanting to make waves. Getting re-elected being more important than the economic health of the country.

Unfortunately, this recalibration needs to happen at some point, with spending, entitlements, but sadly, nobody wants to deal with it.

This would all go away if every nation would just bring their tariffs down to the exact amount they get charged by the US. Or pay their employees a fraction of the US employee wage. Equalization of wages will also bring the wages and standard of living up across the globe if those manufacturers choose to keep building their product overseas and just pay the tariff. this is what democracy does. lifts the Third World out of poverty

perhaps Trump should have just coasted for four years doing very little. Only focusing on getting JD Vance get elected.

I would like someone, maybe the President?, to explain to me the intent or strategy behind the his tariff policy. I am more than willing to grant him the "get it done up front" award. Just tell me what it is he is trying to do.

There is a very real conflict. His apparent goals and methods incentivize in different directions. Maximizing Treasury revenue requires high import volumes, which clashes with the aim of reducing imports to bolster domestic industry. If tariffs succeed in cutting trade deficits by curbing imports, the revenue stream shrinks. Conversely, if imports persist despite tariffs, the reshoring effect weakens. A number of economists have noted these conflicting aspirations — tariffs might raise short-term revenue but could reduce GDP and actual incomes over time. I would argue the latter would be a disaster for a party wanting to run with its mandate for longer than one election cycle.

These conflicts will be particularly troublesome if the electorate's immediate concern will be a meaningfully higher consumer price index.

In short, It would help skeptics like me and that large independent wedge, if anyone could provide a coherent explanation of how Liberation Day accomplishes the administration's goals which I assume have something to do with long term national prosperity.

 

[John Wasmuth]

I Spartacus ties up Senate floor for 25 hours doing the peoples’ work

You spelled “Fartacus” wrong…..

 

[Altitude sickness]

I agree. If these tariffs go for 6-18 months the republicans are toast. Usually politicians print and hand out money.

 

[Aaron N]

The idea is that the tax cuts will stimulate the economy, resulting in more tax revenue. Also, if they can manage to cut a substantial amount of waste we might not go into debt much if at all.
Now, some stuff is silly. Making car interest payments deductible is just encouraging people to get further in debt. Unless it is a way to counter tariffs resulting in higher car prices.

The citizens think they're getting a deal, while the banks and car companies are licking their lips.

 

[Red Leg]

I would like someone, maybe the President?, to explain to me the intent or strategy behind the his tariff policy. I am more than willing to grant him the "get it done up front" award. Just tell me what it is he is trying to do.

There is a very real conflict. His apparent goals and methods incentivize in different directions. Maximizing Treasury revenue requires high import volumes, which clashes with the aim of reducing imports to bolster domestic industry. If tariffs succeed in cutting trade deficits by curbing imports, the revenue stream shrinks. Conversely, if imports persist despite tariffs, the reshoring effect weakens. A number of economists have noted these conflicting aspirations — tariffs might raise short-term revenue but could reduce GDP and actual incomes over time. I would argue the latter would be a disaster for a party wanting to run with its mandate for longer than one election cycle.

These conflicts will be particularly troublesome if the electorate's immediate concern will be a meaningfully higher consumer price index.

In short, It would help skeptics like me and that large independent wedge, if anyone could provide a coherent explanation of how Liberation Day accomplishes the administration's goals which I assume have something to do with long term national prosperity.

Let me offer an example that may hit close to some on the forum.

Tariffs ripple through domestic manufacturing. Let's take my Ford F-250. The U.S. auto industry leans heavily on imported parts, and slapping tariffs on those inputs will increase costs quickly. Moreover, those costs can not be addressed quickly because of the extensive worldwide supply chain supporting that manufacturing process.

The Center for Automotive Research, pegs foreign content in U.S.-made vehicles at 20-40% on average, depending on the model. A heavy-duty like the F-250, built in Kentucky or Ohio, is about 30% — steel from Canada, electronics from Mexico, and specialty components from Asia. Trump’s 25% tariff on autos and parts, set for April 2025, plus the broader 10-20% universal tariffs, will directly impact those components. I can testify from personal experience, no manufacturer, including Ford is not swapping out that global supply chain overnight; it’s a years-long retooling process, if it happens at all. There is already a lot of grumbling among both management and workers in swing state land about a potential reduction in demand regardless of a long term onshoring strategy,

Cost-wise, it isn't pretty for the consumer. If 30% of my F-250 content is hit with a 25% tariff, that’s a 7.5% bump on the sticker price before factoring in retaliation or supply disruptions. A $60,000 truck could jump to $64,500 - the increase I noted in my previous post. Add in steel tariffs (Canada’s a big supplier), and it’s more. Automobile manufacturers are already running fairly tight margins due to domestic competition. They have little room to eat anything so prices will go up - probably quickly. It took decades to create competitive supply chains - recreating them won't happen overnight.

I think this reality undercuts either tariff goals. Revenue? Higher costs tank demand, shrinking import volumes and tariff revenue. Trade rebalancing? Domestic production suffers too, not just foreign rivals. And by the way, Toyota’s U.S. plants use imported parts—same problem. Consumers will feel it either way. Assuming the real strategic play is to force manufacturing back - that could work eventually, but any meaningful lag means U.S. goods could be a lot higher fall of next year.