Every nation was hoping every other nation would stay out and not negotiate. and they could all squeeze the US together. but once they saw everybody coming to the table, there was a flood. you have no leverage if you’re the only one out there on a limb with China.
But once again, China does not care. they are not coming to the table. They need this excuse to blame all their financial woes on Trump. Also, I’m afraid it gives them the excuse to now go seize Taiwan. Most likely a naval blockade. Not a land invasion. Taiwan is screwed.
Xi cant afford to be perceived as weak or bowing to Trumps will... I don't think he has a choice other than playing hardball.. which I suspect is what Trump wanted and intended (he has hated the Chinese for 40 years.. he wants to see US/China relations soften)...
Im not convinced on Taiwan though.. That would be a bold move by Xi.. and might be just as bad for China as Putins invasion of Ukraine has been for Russia..
Manage to take Taiwan quickly and easily and Xi would have a colossal win under his belt..
But if anything delayed Chinas ability to actually own Taiwan for 2-3 years, Chinas economy would get crushed, and their military might suffer some of the same problems Russias has..
While the US owes China a lot of money, what the US owes is just a tiny fraction of what the rest of the globe owes to China.. most of the money owed to China isn't readily or easily collectable.. its largely tied up in developing countries throughout Africa and Asia..
And while it is true that the world owes China a lot of money.. its also true that China owes the world a lot of money... its debt is currently over 300% of its GDP.. (FWIW, we think the US debt to GDP ratio is insane at 122%.. I cant imagine what sort of wizardry has to take place for China to remain afloat at 300%)..
Most of the US money owed to China isn't actually owed to China at all.. it has been financed through bilateral loans made by the UK and Japan..
So what happens when the US decides "screw China.. we'll just pay Japan and the UK back directly".. and the rest of Chinas debtors like Pakistan, Turkmeinistan, Angola, Bangladesh, Zambia, etc.. says "hey Xi.. sorry.. we're happy to give you some more "stuff".. but we don't have any actual money to help finance your economy or your blocade of Taiwan"...
China now cant pay its 300% of GDP debts.. its economy is already incredibly fragile.. and while it has a huge military, in many ways it mirrors Russias (old technology, under trained personnel, centralized leadership, etc)...
And since the entire developed world is still very much reliant on the Taiwan chip industry... There would be no faster or better way to see Americans, Canadians, Brits, French, Germans, etc all come together to solve a much, much bigger problem than the tariff concern that they're all upset about right now..
A blockade of Taiwan, if Xi didn't play his hand absolutely perfectly could be another 9/11.. an event that unifies an otherwise disparate group of nations against a common enemy that is seen as a threat to all..
I think Taiwan becomes seriously vulnerable in another 5-10 years.. China definitely wants Taiwan.. but Taiwan is far too valuable to the rest of the world right now..
The US and several other countries are moving incredibly fast to expand their chip and semi conductor industries... multiple factories are being built in the US, Japan, South Korea, Germany, and the Netherlands are all building significant additional capacity right now..
Once the world isn't all that reliant on Taiwan for a key component in pretty much every laptop, tv, phone, automobile, etc..etc.. there might come a time when the world wont be all that interested in protecting Taiwan.. and might just let China have it..
